Pacific Northwest Power System and Wind Power Development Jeff King Northwest Power & Conservation Council June 2010 4/9/2019

The Western interconnected power system Strong transmission interconnections: British Columbia (2000 MW) Bay Area (4900 MW) LA Metro Area (3100 MW) Pacific Northwest Region 4/9/2019 2

WECC Balancing Authorities & ISOs Alberta ESO WECC Balancing Authorities & ISOs NaturEner Power Watch California ISO 4/9/2019

Northwest generating capacity (MW)* * Operating and under construction July 2010 ** 16% of regional peak hourly load 4/9/2019

Northwest* generating capacity additions * WA, OR, ID & MT (incl. MRO) 4/9/2019 5

Cumulative Northwest* wind plant additions * WA, OR, ID & MT (excl. MRO) 4/9/2019

What drives wind development? Lowest-cost renewable available in bulk quantity Renewable portfolio standards (WA, OR, MT, CA) Flexible California RPS energy delivery requirements Federal and state financial incentives (PTC, ITC, BETC) (Generally) quick project development and construction Rural economic benefits + green tinge = strong political support 4/9/2019

Demand for RPS qualifying resources 8 8 April 9, 2019 4/9/2019 8 8

PNW wind: Equity ownership or long-term contracts vs PNW wind: Equity ownership or long-term contracts vs. TRECs (Jan 2011, aMW) 4/9/2019

Northwest wind power: Balancing Authorities 4/9/2019

BPA Balancing Authority wind capacity BPA BA min load BPA BA peak load 4/9/2019

Northwest windpower development Operating Under construction Planned Area of legend symbols represents 200 MW capacity 4/9/2019

Why is wind capacity concentrated east of the Columbia River Gorge? Reasonable (though not world-class) wind quality Former surplus of transmission capacity to PNW load centers Head of interties to California Compatible land use (dryland wheat and rangeland) Favorable political climate (most counties) 4/9/2019

Gorge winds driven by Pacific storm fronts 4/9/2019

Northwest wind power issues Wind capacity is geographically concentrated, leading to volatile behavior (large and rapid ramps) Wind capacity is concentrated in the Bonneville Balancing Authority Bonneville needs little wind for its native load; wind capacity will soon exceed Bonneville's minimum load Northwest wind is primarily driven by Pacific storm fronts, uncorrelated with load Storm front + high spring hydro + low load + spill constraints can lead to excess generation Production incentives + REC revenues discourage curtailment Demand for wind power increasingly driven by California RPS California RPS policy requires energy delivery only within the calendar year, so does not encourage transmission investment Future California RPS policy is uncertain 4/9/2019