Jannica Haldin HELCOM Professional Secretary HELCOM State of the Baltic Sea Report (HOLAS II) HOLAS II gives an update on the overall state of ecosystem health in the Baltic Sea. The assessment follows up on the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan, and has been developed so that the results can support reporting under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) by those Contracting Parties to the Helsinki Convention that are also EU member states. In addition to indicator and integrated results it also contains information on trends. Jannica Haldin HELCOM Professional Secretary

Overall timeline for HOLAS II   2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Planning and project initiation Outline of the assessment Indicator development- Core indicators Propose and test indicators and spatial data sets to be included Data arrangements Tool and method development Final data submission for inclusion in HOLAS II Agree assessment methods to be applied (HOD 51-2016) 2017 assessments Evaluation of assessment results Comments and review by WGs of the first assessment in spring 2017 GEAR to consider with a view to national consultation, spring 2017 First assessment results (HOD June 2017) Updates as needed Writing and evaluation Updated report, June 2018 (HOD)

Overall timeline for HOLAS II   2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Planning and project initiation Outline of the assessment Indicator development- Core indicators Propose and test indicators and spatial data sets to be included Data arrangements Tool and method development Final data submission for inclusion in HOLAS II Agree assessment methods to be applied (HOD 51-2016) 2017 assessments Evaluation of assessment results Comments and review by WGs of the first assessment in spring 2017 GEAR to consider with a view to national consultation, spring 2017 First assessment results (HOD June 2017) Updates as needed Writing and evaluation Updated report, June 2018 (HOD)

Overview of publications supporting HOLAS II Lena Bergström, HOLAS II

The first version of the State of the Baltic Sea’ summary report was compiled and published in early July 2017. The main results of the initial assessment are published in a circa 90 pages report for download as pdf, while more detailed information is presented as associated products in the form of web based information and thematic reports. A dedicate website, providing accessible summaries of the results of the HOLAS II work, was also published in early July. A majority of the supplementary reports have since also been published. A considerable share of the development work required to meet the goals of HOLAS II has taken place within the HELCOM coordinated EU co-financed project BalticBOOST, the TAPAS project,.and the SPICE project. Both the BALTICBoost and TAPAS projects ended before the publication of the first version of the State of the Baltic Sea report. However, the SPICE project will run until January 2018 and will contribute to the 2018 version of the report.

Integrated assessments based on core indicators The first core indicators were developed in HELCOM a decade ago. Summary of the assessment of pressures and status for the Baltic Sea, showing number of sub-basins in good/not good status, with the exception of commercial fishing, which shows the number of stocks. For seals and birds, the squares represent both coastal and open-sea areas without distinguishing between them, whereas for the other components, squares represent open-sea areas. For eutrophication and fish, coastal areas are presented as stacked bars. Note that non-indigenous species and commercial fishing have been assessed in two classes (good/not good), whereas eutrophication, hazardous substances and state components have been assessed in five categories, with two categories representing good status and three representing not good status. In both scales, an empty area indicates that the status has not been assessed quantitatively. This information may be used for reporting on Article 8 a) and b). However, it is important to note that the HELCOM Contracting Parties agreed that, at this point in time, the HELCOM core indicators and threshold values used in the Second Holistic Assessment of the Ecosystem Health of the Baltic Sea (HOLAS II), and the associates State of the Baltic Sea report, should not automatically be considered as equivalent to criteria threshold values in the sense of Commission Decision, but can be used for the purposes of their MSFD obligations by those Contracting Parties being EU Member States that wish to do so. The same applies to HELCOM assessment tools and methodological standards.

Integrated assessment tools BEAT HEAT CHASE Cumulative Impacts Supplementary reports: in depth information regarding methodology and results Integrated assessment tools are applied in HOLAS II for assessing eutrophication (D5), hazardous substances (D8), biodiversity (D1, 3, 4, 6) and to assess cumulative impacts through the use of the Baltic Sea Pressure and Impact Indices.

Integrated assessment results, examples The integrated contamination status of the Baltic Sea assessed using the CHASE tool. The assessment shows that hazardous substances give cause for concern in all sub-areas. The integration is based on seven core indicators covering concentrations of twelve hazardous substances, using both the full data and ‘initial status assessment’ data. The pie charts show how many out of the twelve substance groups achieved or failed the threshold value in each assessment unit. Assessment units with lower confidence (as indicated in the map in the lower right corner) typically also have slightly better contamination status, indicating that these results may be worsened if more data were available. The status assessment of hazardous substances in Danish coastal and territorial waters has been done in accordance with the Water Framework Directive and can be found in the Danish national River Basin Management Plans. Integrated biodiversity status assessment for pelagic habitats . Status is shown in five categories based on the integrated assessment scores obtained in the tool. Biological quality ratios (BQR) above 0.6 correspond to good status. The assessment in open sea areas was based on the indicator Cyanobacterial bloom index’ , and on the core indicators ‘Chlorophyll-a’, and ‘Zooplankton mean size and total stock’ in the open sea. Coastal areas were assessed by national indicators. The confidence assessment is shown in the smaller map, darker shaded areas indicating areas with lower confidence . The table to the right shows which core indicators were included in each open sea assessment unit, and the corresponding core indicator results. Green denotes good status and red denotes not good status. White cells denote areas not assessed by that Map of the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic pressures based on the Baltic Sea Impact index. The cumulative impacts are calculated based on the method of the Baltic Sea Impact Index as the ‘sum of impact’. The method for assessment is given in the supplementary material. The Baltic Sea Impact Index is an estimation of cumulative impacts based on currently best available regional data, but spatial and temporal gaps may occur in underlying datasets.

Economic and Social Analyses HOLAS II Economic and social analyses include: Provides a coherent framework and information across countries and regional results for the Baltic Sea. Work on the HOLAS II ESA analysis have taken place in the TAPAS project (finalized) and the SPICE project (ongoing until January 2018). SPICE will further the development and implementation of ESA and finalize the use of marine waters and cost of degradation analyses, as well as provide an ecosystem services approach, business-as-usual scenario, and tools for integrated assessment. This analysis may be used to support the reporting on Article 8 c) for those Contracting parties who are also EU Member States.

HOLAS II Consultations National Consultation: Ongoing-1 March 2018 Regional Consultation: 1 October-31 December 2017 National Consultation: This consultation will reach out to national stakeholders (sector organizations, NGOs, academia, other authorities the general public etc). Regional Consultation: Stakeholders to be invited to the regional consultation are proposed to be HELCOM observers and additional international organizations and stakeholders that address regional issues of relevance for the Baltic Sea environment and with which HELCOM cooperates. These organizations are not foreseen to respond to national consultations on the ‘State of the Baltic Sea report’ and the regional consultation would thus capture an additional group of stakeholders with a focus on the regional perspective. A template for responses will be prepared by the Secretariat. Respondents will be able to give open comments to the different sub-chapters of the report and will also be invited to respond to specific questions. A sub-set of the questions will be developed to support improvement to the communication of results.

State of the Baltic Sea Report 2018 If needed revise the methodology based on input from the consultation To the extent possible include new indicators and threshold values Update the indicators and indices with an additional year of data Focus on links between the topics and on conclusions

More information: ’State of the Baltic Sea’ summary report Supplementary reports already available: Economic and social analyses Integrated Assessment of Eutrophication Integrated Assessment of Hazardous Substances Integrated Assessment of Biodiversity The assessment of cumulative impacts using the Baltic Sea Pressure Index and the Baltic Sea Impact Index Jannica Haldin (jannica.haldin@helcom.fi)

http://stateofthebalticsea.helcom.fi