Raw plume forecast data

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Presentation transcript:

Raw plume forecast data Lead time↓ Raw plume forecast data 6 2 4 Obs

Correlation skill by target season and lead time

Bias by target season and lead time

Standard deviation ratio by target season and lead time

Correlation by lead time and target offset time (all seasons)

Correlation by target season and lead time: Real-time forecasts vs. longer-term hindcasts Real-time forecasts (2002-2011) Hindcasts (~1981-2010)

9-year sliding correlation Recent decade has lower predictability, not unlike the early 1990s. Attribution to low variability.

3-year sliding correlation Performance was particularly poor more specifically during 2004-2007, similar to 1993-95. Attribution to low variability.

==== ======= poor poor

Findings: 1. Gradual upward trend in ENSO prediction performance is outweighed by decadal variations in inherent ENSO predictability, based on signal-to-noise considerations. 2. During 2002-2010, dynamical models outperformed statistical models during the time of year prediction is most difficult. This performance difference is statistically significant. Future Goal: Developing a multi-model ensemble forecast for plume, based on multi-model ensemble means and/or or on multi-model individual ensemble members.