WECC 2019 Scenarios – Scoping Michael Bailey, PE System Adequacy Planning - WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Study Approach Development Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program Quantum Planning Group Action Item (Sep 28, 2018) 2038 Reliability Assessment Study Approach Key Questions Study Horizons Reliability Impacts Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Study Program Drivers 2018-2019 Study Program Board Priorities Study Requests Priority Reliability Issues Scenario Development Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program Three Tracks: Phase 1 Scenarios Phase 2 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program Three Tracks: Phase 1 Scenarios Phase 2 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Study Program Baseline Schedule 1 day Study Program Approval Jan 28 15 days Create Project Teams Jan 28 - Feb 15 10 days Define Assessment Scope Feb 4 - Feb 15 50 days Determine Modeling Approach Feb 11 - Apr 19 40 days Identify Data Needs Feb 25 - Apr 19 25 days Conduct Assessments Apr 22 - May 24 30 days Create Report May 27 - Jul 5 40 days Prepare Final Report Jul 8 - Aug 30 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario Studies Schedule SC2 & EWCC Scoping Create Project Teams 1 day SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping 15 days SC2 & EWCC Studies 10 days SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies 50 days Review Preliminary Results 40 days 25 days Final Study Runs 30 days Prepare Draft Report 40 days Final Review Final Report 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2019 Scenario Matrix Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario Studies Schedule SC2 & EWCC Scoping Create Project Teams 1 day SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping 15 days SC2 & EWCC Studies 10 days SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies 50 days Review Preliminary Results 40 days 25 days Final Study Runs 30 days Prepare Draft Report 40 days Final Review Final Report 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario Development Tasks 2018 (Completed) 2019 (To Do) Survey Focus Question Drivers Matrix Narratives Create/Submit RA Proposals Scoping Trends & Early Indicators Perform Studies Analyze Results Review Results Publish Results Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scoping Scenario Studies Create Project Teams Establish Linkages to WECC Priorities and Reliability Assurance Define Study Horizons Define Reporting Metrics Define Modeling Approach Tools Models Methods Data & Metrics Partnerships Develop SOWs Develop Workplans Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Keeping the Momentum Going SDS Next Steps Keeping the Momentum Going Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council SDS Discussion Items SDS Discussion Items (www.wecc.biz/RAC/Pages/SDS.aspx#DiscussionItems) 2038 Reliability Assessment Study Approach 2019 Scenario Reliability Assessment Proposals Scenario Planning Website (www.wecc.biz/SystemAdequacyPlanning/Pages/Scenario-Planning.aspx) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenario 2 Assessment #S2: WECC Scenario #2 Open Market, High Choice Includes: PRAI #5 (WECC Scenario #2 Open Market, High Choice) Key Reliability Questions: As distributed resources become significant, what infrastructure changes and upgrades in the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations? Potential ERS Impacts: Reduction to frequency response after a disturbance Limitations to ramping ability Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario 2 – Questions (Part 1) 2.1 As distributed resources, both in front of and behind the meter become significant and integrated load serving resources: What infrastructure changes and upgrades in both the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations? Where are these changes and upgrades needed; what would they cost, who would pay for them, and how would their costs be allocated among customers? What unique changes would be needed to integrate behind-the-meter (BTM) residential and small business self-generation? What timeline would the changes and upgrades play out over, and how would states and provinces differ in their timing? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario 2 – Questions (Part 2) 2.1 As distributed resources, both in front of and behind the meter become significant and integrated load serving resources: What infrastructure changes and upgrades in both the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations? Where are these changes and upgrades needed; what would they cost, who would pay for them, and how would their costs be allocated among customers? What unique changes would be needed to integrate behind-the-meter (BTM) residential and small business self-generation? What timeline would the changes and upgrades play out over, and how would states and provinces differ in their timing? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Energy-Water-Climate Change Assessment #S5: WECC Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario Includes: PRAI #8 (WECC Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario) Key Reliability Questions: What potential risks to the reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection would result through changes to the climate? What potential geographic shifts in electricity demand due to changing demographics driven by reactions to increased global warming and extreme weather events might occur in the region? Potential ERS Impacts: Reduction to frequency response after a disturbance Limitations to ramping ability Resource inadequacy Transmission inadequacy Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario 5 – Questions (Part 1) 5.1 What potential risks to the reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection would result through changes to the climate, and how would those changes impact the electrical reliability of the Western Interconnection? How might the generation resource portfolio change due to climate change related events? How might the utilization of the bulk electric transmission system change due to climate change related events? What operational challenges may arise in both the BPS due to climate change-related events? What impacts will climate change have on the operating and maintenance costs of the bulk transmission system? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario 5 – Questions (Part 2) 5.2 What potential geographic shifts in electricity demand due to changing demographics driven by reactions to increased global warming and extreme weather events might occur in the region? How might load growth patterns and characteristics change due to climate change related events? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Tools & Paradigms Tool-Based Approach What can we learn from PCM analyses? What can we learn from power flow analyses? Risk-Based Approach What potential future reliability risks should we be thinking about? How can we study them? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Horizons & Tools Near Term (5 Year) Power System Analysis (PSA) Production Cost (PCM) Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) Production Cost Power System Analysis Capital Expansion (CapEx) Long Term (10 to 20 Year) Capital Expansion Near Term (5 Year) Historical Trends Current Trends Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) Expected Futures Long Term (10 to 20 Year) Future Drivers Plausible Futures Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Horizons & Tools & Focus Near Term (5 Year) Power System Analysis (PSA) Production Cost (PSM) Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) Production Cost Power System Analysis Capital Expansion (CapEx) Long Term (10 to 20 Year) Capital Expansion Near Term (5 Year) Historical Trends Current Trends Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) Expected Futures Long Term (10 to 20 Year) Future Drivers Plausible Futures Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Start With the End in Mind Scenario Narratives Reliability Questions Results Metrics Tools, Models, Methods, Partnerships Data Metrics Stakeholder Engagement Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Smart Results Metrics Specific (simple, sensible, significant). Measurable (meaningful, motivating). Achievable (agreed, attainable). Relevant (reasonable, realistic and resourced, results-based). Time bound (time-based, time limited, time/cost limited, timely, time-sensitive). Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Smart Results Metrics Specific (portfolio mix). Measurable (annual MWh, installed MW). Achievable (viable, PSA/PCM/CapEx). Relevant (answers a reliability question). Time bound (5, 10, 20 year horizons). Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scoping Process Reliability Question Results Metrics Tools, Models Study Approach Modeling Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Scenario Studies Schedule SC2 & EWCC Scoping Create Project Teams 1 day SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping 15 days SC2 & EWCC Studies 10 days SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies 50 days Review Preliminary Results 40 days 25 days Final Study Runs 30 days Prepare Draft Report 40 days Final Review Final Report 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council SDS Next Steps Create project teams Develop workplans aligned with study schedule Scope study approaches Engage with other committees Monitor / review / assist Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Questions? Michael Bailey, PE Senior Staff Engineer WECC – System Adequacy mbailey@wecc.biz Western Electricity Coordinating Council