Population

Dependency Ratio The number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years

Dependency Ratio 0-15 = Dependents 16-64 = Workers 65+ = Dependents Higher the #, greater the burden DR = Number of Dependents (0-15 and 65+) Number of Working-age (16-64) X 100

Dependency Ratio Implications Society incurs costs in supporting its dependent population. Old age generates social costs: Retirement benefits/social security Increased medical expenditures. USA: 12% of the population over 65 accounting for 60% of health care costs. Greater consumption of other social services. Youths: Some medical costs. Great expenditures for education. National budgets often reflect these expenditures. Linked with the population pyramid: Pyramidal distributions have high dependency ratios. “Rectangular” distributions have high dependency ratios. Transitional pyramids have low dependency ratios.

Population 60 and Over, Industrial and Developing Countries, 1950-95, With Projections to 2050 Source: Worldwatch Institute.

Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

Percentage of the Population between 15 and 65, 2000

Gender Ratio Gender (Sex) Ratio: number of males per hundred females In general more males are born than females Males have higher death rates Examples: Europe and North America = 95:100 Rest of World = 102:100

Gender Ratio – Developing Countries Have large % of young people –where males generally outnumber females Lower % of older people – where females are typically more numerous High immigration = more males

The Population Explosion

Population Explosion—a recent event Last 200 years or less for MDCs Industrial Revolution Improvement in sanitation and medicine Last 50 years or less for LDCs Transfer of technology, i.e. medical, agricultural (Green Revolution)

The Population Clock https://www.census.gov/popclock/

Population Change Beginning Population Plus Births Minus Deaths Plus In-Migrants Minus Out-Migrants Ending Population

The population pyramid displays the age POPULATION STRUCTURE The population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area OLD DEPENDANTS ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE YOUNG DEPENDANTS Population in Five Year Age bands FEMALES To the right MALES To the left Usually, but not always, In % to make for easier comparisons between countries

What Population Pyramids Show Us KEY Economically More Developed Country Economically Less Developed Country slope of pyramid indicate the death rate width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority) "kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different population age groups or different sex on one graph The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country

Population Pyramids related to the Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 IMPLICATIONS Both birth rates and Death rates are High, so population growth rates are slow but population Is usually restored Due to high birth Rate. Short life Expectancy EXAMPLES Population starts to grow at an exponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age. Life expectancy rises Infant mortality rate falls. EXAMPLES Population continues to grow but at slower rate. Low C Death Rate. Dramatically declining Crude Birth Rate. EXAMPLES Low Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate Higher dependancy ratio and longer life expectancy Crude Death Rate does Rise slightly because of The ageing population EXAMPLES Scotland today. Japan, USA Scotland before 1760 New Guinea Remote parts of Amazonia Scotland 1870 -1950 Algeria, Tunisia Morocco Scotland 1760 - 1830 Republic of Congo There is some merit in including or considering a Stage 5 today with a declining population

Rapid Growth A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model Large number of young people and a smaller older population

Fast Growth

Slow Growth A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model Large number of “older people” Smaller % of young people

Slow Growth

No Growth End of stage 4 Large number of “older people” Very small % of young people

Negative Growth

Population Pyramid of Mexico, 2000 1 Population Pyramid of Mexico, 2000 Source: US Census Bureau, International Database

Population Pyramid of Sweden, 2000 1 Population Pyramid of Sweden, 2000 Source: US Census Bureau, International Database

Population Pyramid Mexican pyramid Much wider base than the others. Beginning of transition. Rapidly growing population where the percentage of people under 15 years of age is high. Sweden’s pyramid Does not appear to be a pyramid at all. Youngest component is smaller than its middle-aged population and only slightly larger than its aged population. No-growth situation, since some deaths occur from all age groupings. Sweden has a higher death rate than Mexico.

Birth Fluctuations & Age Structure Source: PRB, Population Bulletin, V58, N4, p27.

Population Pyramid, Berlin 1946

1 Population Pyramid German pyramid Shows the most extreme example of population decline. Vast difference between males and females in the upper age groups. Vast number of military casualties among the population which fought the WWII. Significant impacts in the post WWII labor market.

Population Pyramid Summary for United States: 1950, 2025, 2050

Population Woes for East Asia China 1/5th of the world’s population One-child policy-implemented in 1979, prevented over 400 million births. Reduced TFR from 5.3 to 1.5 Fall in fertility rates due to improving economic and social factors in urban areas Late-term abortions encouraged Baby girls sold for average of $3,000/baby Couples are fined $3,000 per additional child beyond one in urban areas WHAT WILL THEIR FUTURE PYRAMID RESEMBLE? Japan 1970s-BR 2.1/2010-BR 1.26 Japanese are living longer Highest proportion of elderly in the world Currently 20% of population is over 65 By 2040-40% will be over 65 WHAT WILL THEIR FUTURE PYRAMID RESEMBLE?

DECLINING JAPANESE POPULATION The fertility rate needed to ensure that the population remains constant as each set of parents is replaced by its offspring. The replacement fertility rate is a little more than 2, usually around 2.2 to account for the deaths of children Total fertility rates 0.5 1 1.5 2 1.44 1.65 1.24 1.66 2.06 Globalization & Diversity: Rowntree, Lewis, Price, Wyckoff

PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION JAPAN’S AGE DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION 1990 2025 AGE GROUP 0-14 Years 18.4% 14.9% 15-24 Years 15.4% 11.6% 25-64 Years 54.5% 49.6% 65+ Years 11.7% 23.9% ______________________________________________________ 100% 100% SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS 1990 (NEW YORK: UNITED NATIONS, 1991) Globalization & Diversity: Rowntree, Lewis, Price, Wyckoff

Why Asia’s Greying Matters Asia, long associated with its youthful armies of factory workers, is growing older fast. That threatens to slow the region’s turbo-charged growth in the years to come, and means investors will need to shift their Asian holdings to match the region’s maturing profile. For some, that could mean shifting over time from markets in greying nations, such as China, South Korea and Taiwan, and into Asia’s more youthful economies – India, Indonesia and the Philippines. Asia’s population is aging faster than any other region’s. While Japan’s population is already shrinking, in others population growth is slowing to nearly a halt. The average number of children born to women in South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore is currently the lowest in the world, according to the CIA World Factbook. The result is a declining number of workers due to retirement, and this means losing productivity due to not having the numbers of young labor to replace.

Worst Population Pyramid EVER!!

Development New Zealand Australia HDI 0.939 (2nd best to Norway!) Pop. Almost 25 million HDI 0.915 (13th overall) Pop. 4.7 million

Like most of the developed world New Zealand has a “Graying Population”

Twizzler Population Pyramids In your groups Work together to use data table to create population pyramid; you must first calculate all percentages Be ready to show the rest of class and explain why you think it is in the shape it is in

Be prepared to discuss the following with the class… What does the shape of your pyramid tell us about their population? (BR/DR/TFR) What does your pyramid tell us about the dependents? Is your pyramid of an LDC or MDC? How can you tell? What do any BULGES or INDENTS tell us?