No Document Agenda 9 Extra-EU work

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Presentation transcript:

No Document Agenda 9 Extra-EU work Working Group on Articles A64 and A65 of the Staff Regulations Meeting in Luxembourg 28+29 March 2017

Content of this presentation Place to Place (P2P) survey: UN:22 OECD ISRP:12 ECP:5 Consumer Price Index : UN HICP (ECP) NSI / CB IMF 2016 results P2P survey in Taiwan From BH57 to BH80, results. (New) DS with smoothing factor (New) DS with estimated CPI (New)

UN P2P processed in 2016 (1 to 11/22) Table summarising the data for 11/22 UN P2P processed in 2016 (First part) Duty Stations Myanmar Cuba Belarus Bostwana Chad Chile Comoros Congo Eritrea Lesotho Mauritania CC before P2P 59.1 98.5 42.5 50.5 115.8 51.9 63.0 125.0 151.9 39.1 66.6 CC after P2P 67.6 81.8 73.6 67.2 97.4 83.5 81.0 107.0 125.2 55.6 76.5 Last survey Mar-12 Apr-12 May-09 Nov-94 Feb-09 Mar-99 Jun-14 Nov-00 Feb-01 Current survey May-15 Apr-15 Sep-15 Mar-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Aug-15 New delegation ? No Nber BH covered 41 / 57 47 / 57 40 / 57 46 / 57 53 / 57 42 / 57 43 / 57 38 / 57 Nber BH estimated 16 / 57 10 / 57 17 / 57 11 / 57 4 / 57 15 / 57 14 / 57 19 / 57 Nber DomServ / 12 10 / 12 8 / 12 5 / 12 6 / 12 7 / 12 9 / 12   Result Accepted

UN P2P processed in 2016 (12 to 22 / 22) Table summarising the data for 12/22 UN P2P processed in 2016 (Second part) Duty Stations Ukraine Tunisia Uzbekistan Uganda Kyrgystan Kazakhstan Haiti Guinea Bissau Fiji C-Afric-Rep Cameroun CC before P2P 51.9 69.9 91.7 71.0 65.0 56.1 88.7 93.6 68.5 106.4 97.0 CC after P2P 71.1 81.3 92.2 72.2 69.2 55.6 85.9 83.8 78.3 108.9 85.2 Last survey May-09 Jan-99 Sep-12 Feb-98 Nov-09 Feb-09 Aug-09 Apr-12 Jan-09 Current survey Oct-15 Nov-15 Sep-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 New delegation ? No Nber BH covered 48 / 57 47 / 57 44 / 57 50 / 57 40 / 57 41 / 57 39 / 57 Nber BH estimated 9 / 57 10 / 57 13 / 57 7 / 57 17 / 57 16 / 57 18 / 57 Nber DomServ / 12 5 / 12 7 / 12 8 / 12 10 / 12 6 / 12 9 / 12   Result Accepted

Summary UN P2P processed in 2016 Duty Stations In average   CC before P2P 4>100, 18<100 CC after P2P 3>100, 19<100 Last survey May-07 Current survey May-15 New delegation ? No Nber BH covered 45 / 57 79% Nber BH estimated 12/ 57 21% Nber Dom Serv / 12 8 / 12 67%

12 duty stations ESTAT (ECP)/OECD ISRP Iceland Reykjavík Norway Oslo Switzerland Geneve Bern Turkey Ankara Canada Ottawa Mexico Mexico City United States Washington Japan Tokyo South Korea Seoul Australia Canberra New Zealand Wellington CC with OECD ISRP PPP Inflation with UN CPI Inflation with HICP ECP ECP Coordinated by Eurostat

12 duty station PPP OECD ISRP Data as PPP OECD ISRP July 2016: IS NO CH* TR CA MX US JP KR AU NZ PPP 187.5 12.14 1.408 2.497 1.439 11.48 1.055 130.5 1217 1.570 1.663 X-rates 138.200 9.30650 1.08540 3.21570 1.44070 20.7331 1.10900 113.850 1283.15 1.49110 1.55650 CC 135.7 129.7 77.6 99.9 55.4 95.1 114.6 94.8 105.3 106.8 January 2016 ISRP data updated at July 2016 New 185.6 12.00 1.403 2.485 1.430 11.75 1.049 130.9 1218 1.583 1.625 134.3 128.9 129.3 77.3 99.3 56.7 94.6 115.0 94.9 106.2 104.4 % difference between ISRP results and RP2 2015 final results -1.0% -1.2% -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% -2.3% -0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.9% *Switzerland (Geneva + Bern) ISRP Estat

How many CCs were updated using UN P2P or ISRP PPPs 22 DS covered by new UN P2Ps 12 DS covered by PPP from ECP/OECD Total: 34 DS, representing 23% of all the Extra-EU DS, have had their CC updated and corrected.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) sources UN CPI 85   NSI / BC 40 When UN CPI trends are missing or incomplete IMF database 5 Comoros, Cuba, Eritrea, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan ECP Iceland, Norway, Switzerland (Bern, Geneva), Turkey No results 9 Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen Total 144

Currencies used (119) in Extra-EU CFA (Communauté Financière d'Afrique) 13 Benin, Burkina, Cameroon, C African Rep, Chad, Congo, Gabon, Guinea Bis, Ivory C, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo, USD (United States Dollar) 10 Cuba, Dem Rep Congo, Ecuador, El salvador, Liberia, Panama, Timor Leste, USA(*2), Zimbabwe CMA (Common Monetary Area) 4 Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland Euro 2 Kosovo, Montenegro Local 115   Total 144

Taiwan survey results Taiwan is one of the Duty Stations that: Is not covered by UN or ISRP Was not surveyed since 2009 A P2P was organised through a call for tender. The winner was EIU The P2P was run in April 2016. New PPPs were entered in July 2016.

Taiwan, evolution PPP and CC, between old updated and new survey (at 04/2016) 12 Groups Old Cycle up dated with CPI New Cycle, survey results % Diff New/Old PPP X-rates CC PPP - CC 1-Food and non-alcoholic beverages 48.41 36.45050 132.8 28.60 78.5 -41% 0.00% 2-Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 44.71 122.7 26.87 73.7 -40% 3-Clothing and footwear 37.42 102.7 53.27 146.1 42% 4-Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 13.35 36.6 19.11 52.4 43% 5-Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house 44.82 123.0 39.47 108.3 -12% 6-Health 25.87 71.0 29.62 81.3 14% 7-Transport 25.78 70.7 27.25 74.8 6% 8-Communications 18.09 49.6 32.86 90.1 82% 9-Recreation and culture 30.57 83.9 33.45 91.8 9% 10-Education 26.48 72.6 36.451 100.0 38% 11-Hotels, cafes and restaurants 32.74 89.8 24.39 66.9 -25% 12-Miscellaneous goods and services 25.42 69.8 23.467 64.4 -8% All items 31.68 87.1 29.78 81.7 -6%

Summary result P2P run in Taiwan CC applicable before P2P 87.1 CC applicable after P2P 81.7 % change PPPs New / Old up dated survey -5.99% % change X-rates New / Old up dated survey 0.00% % change CCs New / Old up dated survey Last survey date Nov-09 Current survey date Apr-16 New delegation ? No Nber BH cover 100% / 57 52 / 57 Number BH estimated 5 / 57 % weight estimated overall the 57 BHs 7.83% Nber Items collected /330 241 / 330 Nber Items not selected 89 % Items covered 73.0% Nber Dom Serv cover / 12 4 / 12 P2P accepted / rejected Accepted

From 57BH to 80BH (ISRP/ECP DS) Availability of data (PPPs), 80BHs, for 12 DS covered by ISRP-ECP Australia (Canberra), Canada (Ottawa), Japan (Tokyo), Korea (Seoul), Mexico (Mexico City), New-Zealand (Wellington), USA (Washington DC) Iceland (Reykjavík), Norway (Oslo), Switzerland (Geneva / Bern), Turkey (Ankara), For each case: same starting point (At 57BH, 80BH), PPPs at January 2016 Same JBLI (at 57BH, 80BH), same HICP(at 57BH, 80BH) Presentation result in graphs. Decision taken 2016 WG Art 64/65 in order to harmonize and make consistent data between Extra-Intra/EU & UN

Results

Results

Results Although the components are more detailed at 80BH For each DS the trends are similar There is little impact and difference

Summary results BH80 instead BH57 % difference PPP (or CC) between BH80 / BH57 Duty Station Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Ankara, Turkey 0.0 0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 Geneva / Bern , Switzerland 0.1 Bern, Switzerland Wellington, N.Z. Ottawa ON, Canada Seoul, Korea Tokyo, Japan 0.5 Washington DC, U.S.A. 0.4 Canberra, Australia Mexico City, Mexico 0.7 0.6 Oslo, Norway 0.9 1.0 Islande, Reykjavík 0.8 Over 1 year coverage the % diff max is 0.7%.

Next step 2017: Calculation based on 80BH will progressively be introduced for all the Extra-EU DS: For the 12 DS covered by ISRP and ECP For the remaining DS as P2P surveys will be received from the UN

Smoothing impact of a new survey results: Apply to PPP only

DS with Smoothing Factor Duty Station Town Nber Month Smoothing Factor Cameroon Yaounde 6 97.9 Guinea-Bissau Bissau 98.2 Kyrgyzstan Bichkek 101.1 Mexico Mexico City 101.3 Fiji Suva 102.3 Myanmar Yangon Cuba Havana 12 98.4 Eritrea Asmara Chad Ndjamena 98.5 Congo Brazzaville 98.8 Mauritania Nouakchott Tunisia Tunis Ethiopia Addis Ababa 18 98.3 Comoros Moroni 101.4 Botswana Gaberone 101.6 Lesotho Maseru 102.0 Ukraine Kiev 24 Chile Santiago Belarus Minsk 19 DS From 6 to 24 months SF max 102.3 SF min 97.9

DS with estimated CPI (> 6 months) Duty Station Town Nber estimated months Pakistan Islamabad 7 Trinidad-et-Tobago Port of Spain Maurice Port-Louis Cambodge Phnom Penh Bosnie-et-Herzégovine Sarajevo Banja Luka Papouasie-Nouvelle-Guinée Port Moresby 8 Malawi Lilongwe Madagascar Antananarivo Jamaïque Kingston Îles Salomon Honiara Nouvelle-Zélande Wellington Barbade Bridgetown 11 Congo Brazzaville 12 Gabon Libreville 15 DS From 7 to max 12 months

Thank you for your attention and questions !