Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Climate Change: Interface with Plant Sciences Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Plant Science Institute Iowa State University Ames, IA 26 October 2007

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2007 380 ppm

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research From Jerry Meehl This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations. The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year 2000. The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period averaged from 1890 to 1919. The black line shows the observed data, or the actual, recorded globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue line represents what the model says global average temperatures would have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model if anthropogenic factors are included. This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th century has been due to human influences. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Energy intensive Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation Reduced Consumption Energy conserving Possible Mitigation Necessary Adaptation IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Tin and Seager

Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Lower mean summertime daily max temperature Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium) Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

NARCCAP PLAN A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CCSM HADAM3 CGCM3 MM5 RegCM3 link to EU programs CGCM3 1960-1990 current 2040-2070 future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ Note: AGCM time slices to be included, too. Initial phase involves driving RCMs with reanalysis output. NARCCAP IAMAS 2005

Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues Plants that adapt to climate change Higher yield (seed and/or biomass; above-ground and/or below-ground) Drought tolerance Disease resistance Resilient to water logging Plants that mitigate climate change Carbon sequestration Plants for fuels Artificial photosynthesis (?)

Potential Plant-Climate Research Issues Plants that deliver environmental services Stimulate rainfall, enhance recycling ratio Protect soil from erosion Better use of early season PAR

Recycling ratio, R = PL/P PL = precipitation from local sources P = total precipitation Amazon: R ~ (0.24 - 0.56) Upper Mississippi River Basin: R~ (0.2-0.24)

May June Jul Jul

ISU Climate Science and Impacts Initiative Open invitation to faculty, staff, and graduate students to discuss opportunities for collaboration on basic science and applications of climate change and climate variability Monday November 26 4:00-5:30 PM 3140 Agronomy Hall (?) Overview of regional climate science at ISU (10 min) Proposals submitted Funding opportunities available