Countering Zika in Latin America by Neil M. Ferguson, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Ilaria Dorigatti, Gemma L. Nedjati-Gilani, Christl A. Donnelly, Maria-Gloria Basáñez, Pierre Nouvellet, and Justin Lessler Science Volume ():aag0219 July 14, 2016 Published by AAAS

Zika transmission dynamics. Zika transmission dynamics. (Top) Publically available surveillance data on weekly suspected and laboratory confirmed Zika cases (left axis and bars) overlaid with estimates of the reproduction number, R (running 5-week average shown, centered on the middle week). The horizontal dashed line marks the R = 1 threshold. Results for Brazil in 2015–16 are shown; see SM for other countries and sources and for estimation methods. (Center and Bottom) Typical (see SM for other examples) simulated time series of Zika weekly infection incidence per 1000 people in a population of 600 million for two scenarios: no interventions (blue line), and with interventions that decrease mosquito life span by 20% for 1 year during the initial epidemic (red line). Incidence is plotted on a nonlinear scale (increments of 2 up to 10, then increments of 20) to allow later epidemics to be resolved clearly. Top and bottom shaded insets show, respectively, incidence dynamics (colored curves) in the 20 spatial regions being modeled (axes as on main graph) and the age distribution (black bars) of infections, for the first two epidemic periods in the no-intervention scenario. Full details provided in SM. [Figure adapted by V. Altounian] Neil M. Ferguson et al. Science 2016;science.aag0219 Published by AAAS