Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003

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Presentation transcript:

Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003 Modeling a heavy rainfall case in North-East Estonia, August 2003. Influence of model resolution. Andres Luhamaa University of Tartu 2005

Overview of the event Precipitation amount: in one day 1.5 times more than monthly mean. High precipitation rates measured only in one (Estonian station)

Radar observations, aug 05, 17.00 – aug06, 06.00

Forecasts EMHI – general storm warning for Gulf of Finland, nothing more. FMI 22km forecast estimates high precipitation at the northern coast of Estonia.

Modelling experiment Influence of model resolution HH and NHH 22km, 11km, 5km, 3km HH and NHH Reference HIRLAM and non-hydrostatic Different versions of STRACO cloud scheme HIRLAM 6.1.0 - STR1 6.1.2 (last major updates) - STR2 Research version for high resolutions (<5km) called straco031 - STR3

11km STR-1 simulation FMI 22km forecast

STR-2 HH 11km simulation NHH 11km simulation

STR-1 HH 5km simulation NHH 5km simulation

NHH STR-3 5km simulation HH STR-2 5km simulation NHH STR-2 5km simulation

3-km simulations NHH STR-3 NHH STR-1 NHH STR-2

Conclusions: Nothing better than 22km HH forecast could be achieved ;( Significant difference between NHH and HH precipitation amounts already at 11km resolution! Parameterization tuning for HH->NHH modeling? As difference is only in amounts, is NHH necessary at coarser resolutions?