Future of JI-2 Some considerations from Russian MEDT O. Pluzhnikov MEDT, Russia
JI-2: SHORT TERM PERSPECTIVE – ASSUMPTIONS AND CONCLUSION All the Annex 1 countries will meet eligibility criteria for JI-2 in 2008-2009. Most of the Annex 1 countries will meet eligibility criteria for JI-1 in 2008-2009. JI-2 at the first stage (preparatory work and registration of the first projects) will demonstrate both difficulties in JI-2 realization (methodologies, accreditation of AIE) and credibility of the mechanism CDM will be insufficient to meet the demand in units at the carbon market (60-70%). Canada will participate in Kyoto mechanisms JI-1 will not be widely realized (credibility vs probable decrease of costs) Russia will approve JI procedures soon and will be active JI-player. No particular decisions will be made on JI-1 – at least in the near future. GIS will not be widely realized – at least in Russia (credibility, legal difficulties, low financial incentives, banking?) World will demonstrate progress in negotiations on post-2012 period in 2007-2008 JI-2 WILL PLAY THE LEADING ROLE (TOGETHER WITH CDM) AT THE INTERNATIONAL CARBON MARKET IN THE PERIOD 2008-2012
JI-2 LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE – ?