42h forecast HIRLAM 50km 24h accumulated precipitation.

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Presentation transcript:

42h forecast HIRLAM 50km 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast ECMWF ~ 60km 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast EPS 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast TEPS 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast LAMEPS 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast LAMTEPS 24h accumulated precipitation

(*) LAMTEPS Member 14

Case 2 Observed 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast HIRLAM 50km 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast ECMWF ~ 60km 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast EPS 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast TEPS 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast LAMEPS 24h accumulated precipitation

42h forecast LAMTEPS 24h accumulated precipitation

HIRLAM 50km analysis 27 Sept. 1999 06 UTC (MSLP) L

EPS member 18 42 hours forecast valid at 27 Sept. 1999 06 UTC L

LAMEPS member 18 42 hours forecast valid at 27 Sept. 1999 06 UTC L

Summary Ensembles with HIRLAM are promising, especially for heavy precipitation events Perturbing lateral boundary conditions important For forecast range 0-3 days perturbing with TEPS better than EPS HIRLAM is able to add features, not only downscaling EPS

Plans Norwegian met. Inst. wants to continue the work with limited area ensembles Look at different ways of perturbing the initial conditions Perturbing the physics: using different physical packages? Multi model approach?