Towards a new tool for seasonal adjustments: Demetra+ Euro-indicators Working Group Luxembourg, 4rd & 5th December 2008 Item 13.2 of the Agenda Towards a new tool for seasonal adjustments: Demetra+ Cristina Calizzani – Unit B5 Jean-Marc Museux – Unit B5 Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for the European policies

Background Availability of modern & reliable software tools for SA in friendly environment important precondition Massive treatment Detailed analysis Demetra for windows SA interface developed by Eurostat in 90s Reference tool in many NSIs and freely available Harmonisation of practices Last release: many features expected by users Complexity to maintain and update Demetra code → not in line with modern programming approaches Risk of destabilisation of the package Approval of ESS guidelines on SA (by SPC and CMFB) raised new concerns on SA tools New and more sustainable architecture needed

Architecture new tool Based on a set of modular and reusable components flexibility, reusability, portability SA toolkit (library of reusable components in the time series domain) developed at NBB as the basis of the new SA tool Powerful/flexible solution to manage complex SA algorithms Technology easy to be embedded in Windows environments, fast developments and extensions allowed Recognised by the Eurostat-ECB SASG as the best solution Not a single tool but several specialised applications (Batch, Demetra+, Excel add-in, Research) All applications relying on the same core functions

Time series Toolkit (TST) Development tools WEB service Batch Dedicated modules Implementation classes (NBB Tools) Graphical components Extensions Graphical applications: Demetra + … Time Series Services (TSS) External modules (FORTRAN, others) TSTolkit Excel add-ins Final applications

Demetra+ solution Stepwise approach: 4 prototypes (to be tested and subject to interaction with users & developers) Prototype 2 (Dec. 2008): backbone Demetra+ Integration core functionalities and basic interface with databases Prototype 3 (June 2009): closer to users’ requirements It will allow identification final specifications Prototype 4 (Autumn 2009) beta version new tool 5 phases of development (September 08 - January 10)

Actors involved: National Bank of Belgium, Bank of Spain, USCB, Eurostat User Testing Group (to be launched in January 2009) Experienced users will contribute to the validation of the tool by testing components as they become available and by checking functionalities against users’ requirements SA Steering Group High level group in charge of the coordination SA activities in NSIs and NCBs (reporting to SPC and CMFB)

Conclusions Reliable SA tools contribute to the development of expertise/harmonisation SA procedures in the ESS Advances in research impose the availability of flexible and modern tools Process of development new SA tool very challenging but also very promising Methodological knowledge and IT expertise to cooperate available among partners organisations Beta version of a new generation SA tool available in the beginning of 2010 Good example of collaborative development between statistical institutions

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