Lies, Damn Lies, and the Election of 2000 Kathleen Smith & Roberta Jones NCTM 2002 Las Vegas

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics…. Benjamin Disraeli... as attributed to Mark Twain in his Autobiography

Why Statistics? What better way to relate math to real life? What better way to bring the media into math class? What better source of non-routine problems? What better way to integrate other subjects? What could be a more useful life skill? What better way to span the mathematics curriculum?

An Algebra Lesson Statement: “Gore is up in Michigan 45% to 37%, still a statistical dead heat when considering the 4 point margin of error.” True or False?

What questions could be addressed? What does “margin of error” mean? Does it apply to each candidate or to the difference between them? What do we do with the unreported 18%? What does “dead heat” mean? How could we model this? How can we engage the students with this question? Ask audience for their suggestions Margin of error ---relate to residuals Good question Another good question Model -- use y=x for dead heat then generate random ordered pairs with Gore and Bush 45% with 10% undecided and see what happens. Hold 100 elections of 1000 voters. Plot scatter plot against your “dead heat” line and start the conversation.

“Gore is up in Michigan 45% to 37%, still a statistical dead heat when considering the 4 point margin of error.”

Some Additional Questions? • How was this information obtained? • How many people need to be contacted? • How much does it cost? • What exactly is “margin of error”? • What are other sampling problems?

The worst question ever….. Are you in favor of direct retaliatory measures against Franco’s piracy?

IS THIS THE CAUSE OF ALL THE FUSS?

McREYNOLDS VOTES BY COUNTY

A Look at Exit Polls Where do they come from? How are they conducted? How are they interpreted? What went wrong? What points do we want to make with the students? How do we engage them with this issue? Ask audience for their suggestions Margin of error ---relate to residuals Good question Another good question Model -- use y=x for dead heat then generate random ordered pairs with Gore and Bush 45% with 10% undecided and see what happens. Hold 100 elections of 1000 voters. Plot scatter plot against your “dead heat” line and start the conversation.

What was the Final “Official” Vote in Florida? Bush 2,912,790 Gore: 2,912,253 A difference of 537votes! Why not just flip a coin?

What About the Electoral College?

What you might address: • History of Electoral College • Current setup of the College • Does it need to be changed?

The Electoral College system tends to exaggerate the vote: Clinton Dole Popular Vote 49% 41% Electoral College 70% 30% States Won 62% 38%

Visit the Website: www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith/ smithka@cmi.k12.il.us And enjoy the election of 2004...

Election 2002 Websites Where we will put all the stuff you have seen today www.mste.uiuc.edu/smith   National archives has a nice informational site on the Electoral College and the 2000 election, http://www.nara.gov/fedreg/elctcoll/2000res.html 108 pages of article titles pertaining to the 2000 election. http://www.dailynews.yahoo.com/fc/us/Presidential_Election_2000/ The results of the exit polling in Florida www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/fl_epollgridPres.html Supreme Court of Florida: The Presidential Election Case http://www.flcourts.org http://www.flcourts.org/sct/sctdocs/ops/sc00-2431-remand.pdf   A Note on the Voting Irregularities in Palm Beach http://www.madison.hss.cmu.edu/ The Electoral College http://www.fec.gov/pages/ecmenu2.htm M123 -Apportionment Methods http://www.brinkley.isu.edu/~hoffjame/m123/apportion.html Palm Beach County Election Analysis http://www.bestbookmarks.com/election/#links Journal of Statistics Education http://www.amstat.org/pubtications/jse/secure/v8n3/gourgey.cfm