Changing Pattern Of Energy Demand in Glasgow Jim Whyte 16 th July 2013

Background: UK Low Carbon Agenda 2 There is a Cunning Plan

Background: Translation to UK Energy Picture 3 Thank You National Grid For Scenario Analysis: /Future+Energy+Scenarios/ /Future+Energy+Scenarios/ 3 scenario picture with built in Economic Growth Predictions, Axioms and Heroic Assumptions! This is only one well laid out and coherent future energy picture created by National Grid (The Major Gas and Electric company in the UK)..... The Devil is in the detail!

Background: The City Energy Mix Implications 4 Heat Domestic Heating transfer to Electrical Power Industrial Heat use of Bio-fuels/Mass & Carbon Capture Burning Fossil Fuels kept for High Grade Heat Transport Cars (and Buses?) all Electric or Hybrid Electric Mass transit systems Burning Fossil Fuels kept for Aviation & Shipping

Background: The future is Electric! 5 Things Don't Take off till Electricity is Cleaned up in the mid 20s! Reduction In Electrical Demand till Then Concurrent Reduction In Gas Demand

Glasgow Energy Changes: Energy Efficiency 6 Minimise Energy Requirement! Devices Background improvement in Energy Efficiency Boilers Appliances Buildings New Development: Managed by Building Regulations Retrofit: Massive Encouragement In Building Improvement Green Deal ECO Carbon Reduction Commitment scheme for large Commercial & Industrial Users Building Energy Certificates

Glasgow Energy Changes: Heat 7 A Key area for Debate & Decision! Community Energy Systems V Continued Individual Building Installation A Key area for Debate & Decision! Community Energy Systems V Continued Individual Building Installation Individual Building Installation Domestic Heat Pumps Single Commercial Building Level Electrical Heat/Cooling Pump Systems Biomass/Bio fuel Installations Energy Mix Implications Increased Electrical requirement Smart Grids and Reinforcement of electrical system Individual Building Installation Domestic Heat Pumps Single Commercial Building Level Electrical Heat/Cooling Pump Systems Biomass/Bio fuel Installations Energy Mix Implications Increased Electrical requirement Smart Grids and Reinforcement of electrical system Community Energy Systems CHP & District Heating networks Feeds Electrical Energy in & provides Heat Taps into Waste/Process Heat and Geothermal Heat Flexible Technology for Energy Centre Adapt as Low Carbon Requirement Grows Energy Mix Implications New Energy Infrastructure: Heat Network Minimise Requirement for Electrical Reinforcement Community Energy Systems CHP & District Heating networks Feeds Electrical Energy in & provides Heat Taps into Waste/Process Heat and Geothermal Heat Flexible Technology for Energy Centre Adapt as Low Carbon Requirement Grows Energy Mix Implications New Energy Infrastructure: Heat Network Minimise Requirement for Electrical Reinforcement Both Valid Solutions For Low Carbon Requirement Create a Environment for Mixed Solution Driven by Heat and Building Density? Both Valid Solutions For Low Carbon Requirement Create a Environment for Mixed Solution Driven by Heat and Building Density?

8 Glasgow Energy Changes: Transport Increased Requirement for Electrical Energy for Transport needs Individual Car Use Buses Mass Transit Systems But....lots of Smart Grid Potential (Smoothing out the Demand Profile) Overnight Charging Time of Use Tariffs Predictable Car Usage : Use of Car Batteries for Energy Balancing Storage devices etc...

9 Glasgow Energy Changes: Low Carbon Technology Penetration Micro generation Driven By FITS PV prevalent in Cities Community Scale generation CHP: Dependant on Community Heating schemes penetration, CHP: LCT Energy Technology Independent Others at Low Level: Urban Wind Micro Renewable Heat Driven by RHI Heat Pumps, Air & Ground Sourced Biomass Community Scale Renewable Heat Waste & Process Heat Geothermal Large Scale Biomass Bio-fuels & Anaerobic Digestion

10 Glasgow Energy Changes: Summary Now to 2030 Little Change in Current Energy Mix Decrease in Energy Use Due to increasing Energy Efficiencies (balanced by Increasing Population/GDP) Drive for Building Improvement, LCT Penetration and Background Clean Up of Electricity DECC: Updated Energy & Emissions Projections to 2050 Move away from Hydrocarbon Sources (Gas and Petrol) to Electrical Energy Drive for Electric Transport and Electrical Heating Systems (Heat Pumps) Continued Drive for LCT Systems to support local energy Infrastructure Need for Smart Grids to maximise LCT potential and minimise new Infrastructure Decisions By the City To Influence Final Energy Mix Picture How to Maximise Energy Efficiency Potential Encouragement of Citizens LCT take Up Mass Transit Transport Decisions Strategic Decisions on Supply of Heat ?