(Approximately) Bivariate Normal Data and Inference Based on Hotelling’s T2 WNBA Regular Season Home Point Spread and Over/Under Differentials 2010-2018.

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Presentation transcript:

(Approximately) Bivariate Normal Data and Inference Based on Hotelling’s T2 WNBA Regular Season Home Point Spread and Over/Under Differentials 2010-2018

Description of Population Units: N=1833 WNBA Regular Season Games with Home Team Point Spread and Over/Under Total Lines During 2010-2018 Regular Seasons Home Point Spread Line (X1) : The Number of Points the Home Teams “Starts Up” by at Game Begin (Negative Spread Implies Home Team is Favored – Starts Behind) Over/Under Total Line (X2) : Expected Total Points by Both Teams in a Game Home Team Score (X3) Away Team Score (X4)

Population Data

Sampling Distributions of Mean Vector and Variance-Covariance Matrix

Hotelling’s T2

Sampling from the Population Number of Random Samples: 100000 Sample Size: n = 50 For each Sample: Save: Mean Vector and Variance-Covariance Matrix Test H0: d = 0 Obtain 95% CIs for d1, d2 Compare Univariate Distributions of Mean Differences with Theoretical Distributions Plot Mean Differences with Superimposed Bivariate Normal Ellipsoid Graph Histogram of Scaled T2 Statistics with Superimposed F-distribution Compare Mean and Variance of Sample Variances and Covariance with Theoretical Values Graph Histogram of Scaled Correlation Coefficients with t-density (r ≈ 0)

Empirical Results

Empirical Distributions of Means and Normal Densities

Bivariate Empirical Distributions and Normal Ellipsoid