2013 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation May 23, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 14,140 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 759 Imports 8 28 29 125 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,894 14,924 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,400 5,325 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,600 4,850 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,385 1,445 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 750 1,300 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,135 12,920 Ending Stocks 2,004 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.70 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 77.1 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 44.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,390 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 125 Imports 15 14 16 20 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,530 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,635 1,695 Seed & Residual 110 130 90 95 120 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,350 1,450 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,080 3,264 Ending Stocks 265 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.30 10.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.4 Yield (bu./acre) 44.5 46.3 43.7 44.1 Production (mil. bu.) 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,269 2,057 Beg. Stocks 657 976 862 743 731 Imports 119 97 112 125 130 Total Supply 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,137 2,917 Food 919 926 941 945 958 Seed 69 71 76 74 Feed & Residual 150 132 164 360 290 Exports 879 1,289 1,050 1,025 925 Total Use 2,018 2,417 2,231 2,406 2,247 Ending Stocks 670 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.87 5.70 7.24 7.80 6.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4
Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS
Corn Yields Year with slow planting progress, like this year
Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS
Soybean Yields Year with slow planting progress, like this year
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12
World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Ethanol Stocks
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook
Current Corn Futures 5.00 5.06 Source: CME Group, 5/22/2013
Current Soybean Futures 11.79 11.69 Source: CME Group, 5/22/2013
Current Wheat Futures 6.93 Source: KCBOT, 5/22/2013
3 Month Outlook - Temps
3 Month Outlook - Precip
Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Soil moisture issues, key for all 3 crops Export strength/weakness, competition among feed grains Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 Futures (5/22/13) Corn $6.90 $4.70 $5.00 Soybeans $14.30 $10.50 $11.79 Wheat $7.80 $6.80 $6.93
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/