NS3040 Fall Term 2018 TPP Under Japanese Leadership William Pesek, How Abe can make TPP great again, Nikki Asian Review, October 22, 2018

Japan-TPP Overview After Trump withdrew the U.S. from the TPP, Japan has assumed leadership Japan’s Objectives Save free trade and Promote economic growth in the region Member countries are ratifying a TPP-11 as U.S.-China trade war escalates TPP now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership (CPATPP) Trump has tried to pressure member countries into bi-lateral deals while Abe wants to expand the CPATPP

Abe’s Plans I Abe responded to failure of original TPP by developing plans B, C and D that could stand as a bulwark against U.S. protectionism. Plan B Keep TPP alive with the 10 remaining countries Without Japan, TPP did not have a chance to survive By late October 2018 Australia joined Japan, Mexico and Singapore in ratifying the TPP Plan C A comprehensive free trade deal with the EU Eliminates levies that cost Japan and the 28 EU countries about $1.2 billion a year

Abe’s Plans II Plan D Extending TPP in ways that recreate the $19 trillion U.S. economy in the aggregate Targets for inclusion are South Korea, Indonesia, The Philippines and India Currently South Korea and Indonesia may be open to inclusion South Korea wants to join so country can Curb monopolistic ways of family-owned conglomerates (CHABOL) and Create more space for startups

Abe’s Plans III Both countries having trouble with China Korea still shaking off mainland boycotts related to its hosting U.S. missile-defense systems Indonesia faces Chinese bullying in the South China Sea Many strings attached to Chinese aid or market access Abe has been working to counter China’s dominance in Southeast Asia India would be a major coup for the TPP

Expanded TPP As of now reworked TPP amounts to $10 trillion commercial business or 15% of global trade With India and Indonesia TPP would increase by $4.9 trillion With a larger TPP, organization becomes Attractive to push back against U.S. protectionism Worth costs of overcoming domestic opposition Possible developments Would entice Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand to join Colombia and even U.K have expressed interest India, Korea, and the Philippines would find it now makes sense to try and push back against domestic interests

Assessment At its core TPP is currently a counterweight to Chinese dominance and predatory trade methods However a logic in eventually including China China can avoid WTO rules TPP aims to impose stricter standards – particularly in area of intellectual property For now the revamped TPP is Increasing Japan’s role as an economic leader Giving Abenomics a greater shot at success