Building a Low-Carbon Economy – Tackling Climate Change: the Business Opportunities Professor Julia King Climate Change Committee Member Vice-Chancellor,

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Presentation transcript:

Building a Low-Carbon Economy – Tackling Climate Change: the Business Opportunities Professor Julia King Climate Change Committee Member Vice-Chancellor, Aston University, Birmingham Be Birmingham Summit 26 th June

In Dec 08 the CCC set out challenging targets for Government… These challenging targets will drive major new business opportunities across a range of sectors Long term target: 80% reduction in Kyoto GHG on 1990 levels by 2050 Recommendation to reduce emissions by at least 34% by And by 42% by 2020 in event of global deal Interim target now accepted by Government and written into the legislation. Also commitment to ask the CCC to review its recommendations following a global deal

the scale of the UK challenge 2006 emissions International aviation & shipping* UK non-CO 2 GHGs Other CO 2 Industry (heat & industrial processes) Residential & commercial heat Domestic transport Electricity generation * bunker fuels basis 2050 objective 159 Mt CO 2 e 695 Mt CO 2 e 77% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)

Meeting required reductions Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Reducing heat emissions: Energy efficiency Behaviour change Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) Biomass boilers CCS in industry Reducing heat emissions: Energy efficiency Behaviour change Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) Biomass boilers CCS in industry Reducing transport emissions: Fuel efficiency Electric/plug-in hybrids Sustainable biofuels Reducing transport emissions: Fuel efficiency Electric/plug-in hybrids Sustainable biofuels Application of power to transport and heat

Power generation to 2050 POWER SECTOR: required reductions Emissions intensity to 2050

HOMES: emissions reduction from energy use in homes, MtCO 2

HOMES: residential sector MACC - technical potential in 2020

TRANSPORT: a key role for ultra low carbon vehicles in achieving CO 2 targets Key message: decarbonisation of power sector to open the way for using electricity (directly or via renewable hydrogen) in the transport sector in the long term MARKAL scenarios to 2050: reduction in carbon intensity of the transport sector first with conventional technology then with electric, plug-in hybrids, second generation biofuels and hydrogen. Extended ambition scenario for 2020: after slow start, around 20% of new car sales are either EVs or PHEVs by 2020, the rest are various types of hybrids. Increased penetration of biofuels. EU target of 95g CO 2 /Km is met in the UK. Current ambition scenario for 2020: some increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, primarily through increased hybrid car uptake but no additional biofuels and no penetration of either EVs or PHEVs by EU target is not met.

Industry view of the high-level technology & R&D roadmap for decarbonising transport Source: New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team (NAIGT), 2009

EVs: new technologies – new opportunities Arup/CENEX report for BERR and DfT 2008 New car sales by year (extreme range scenario) Number of cars in the UK car parc (extreme range scenario)

Electric vehicles are feasible now The infrastructure is almost in place Some vehicles are already available highly efficient ranges of 60 to 200+ miles some are glamorous! Additional power system load is easily manageable 17% additional generation capacity exploit night time trough and day time dips with smart metering

New business opportunities: POWER New initiatives in power generation Renewable Obligation Certificates: % renewables by 2020 bioenergy combined heat and power major expansion of wind energy: 3 – 28GW by 2020 CCS, new nuclear build

New business opportunities: HOMES DECC heat and energy saving strategy (consultation Feb 09) by 2020 up to 7 million homes offered whole house packages if this cost £6k per house: £42bn business new types of business, new business models employment and skills High efficiency appliances, solar, air and ground source heat pumps…

New business opportunities: CARS Ultra low carbon vehicle demonstrator announced 23 rd June: over 300 ultra low carbon vehicles in the UK the largest group in Birmingham/Coventry EVs and PHEVs potentially 50% of new car sales in the UK by 2023: 1.4 million vehicles Skills for maintenance and repair New infrastructure High efficiency electric motors, AC…

The low carbon economy will offer a lot of opportunities: how can we make sure we are ready for them? Thank you