Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

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Presentation transcript:

Verifying Ensemble Forecasts

Ensemble Forecasts Types of ensembles Multiple initial conditions (anonymous members) Multi-model (tractable members)

Verifying a distribution forecast

Outcomes of probabilistic forecasts

Troubled Rank Histograms

For a Poorman’s ensemble Common practice is to use the separate forecasts as inputs to a statistical model to forecast the observed value. Bayesian Model Averaging – historical performance is used to weight model importance on future predictions.

Open Ex4 Daily rainfall forecast for a basin in Bangladesh. Downscaled from ECWMF 51 member ensemble. mm/day