SRNWP-PEPS COSMO General Meeting 2005 20-23 September 2005 a regional multi-model ensemble in Europe COSMO General Meeting 2005 20-23 September 2005 Zürich (Switzerland) Presentation of Michael Denhard Short-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Programme Internet: www.dwd.de/PEPS Apr-19

20 weather services / 23 forecast products Denmark HIRLAM 16 ECMWF +60h 0, 6, 12, 18 Finland HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +54h 0, 6, 12, 18 Ireland HIRLAM 16 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Netherlands HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Spain HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +24h 0, 12 Norway I HIRLAM 11 ECMWF +30h 0, 12 Norway II HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +30h 0, 12 Sweden I HIRLAM 11 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Sweden II HIRLAM 22 ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Belgium ALADIN 15 ARPEGE +60h 0, 12 Austria ALADIN-AUSTRIA 9.6 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 France ALADIN-FRANCE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Croatia ALADIN-LACE 8.9 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Czech Rep. ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Hungary ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Slovakia ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 Slovenia ALADIN-LACE 9.5 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12 UK I UKMO-LAM 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 UK II UKMO-EU 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18 Germany LM 7 GME +48h 0, 12, 18 Switzerland aLMo 7 ECMWF +72h 0, 12 Italy Euro LM 7 EuroHRM +60h 0 Poland LM 14 GME +72h 0, 12 Apr-19

SRNWP-PEPS Probabilities PEPS-Grid with a grid spacing of 0.0625° (~7 km) covering Europe Probabilities (Nearest Neighbour) The ensemble size depends on location and every PEPS grid point has its own probability distribution Apr-19

Ensemble Products Ensemble mean. Forecast periods +06...+30h (24 hours), +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours) Total precipitation (accumulation), sum of convective and large scale precipitation Total snow (accumulation) ), sum of convective and large scale snow Maximum 10 m wind speed Maximum 10 m wind gust speed 2 m minimum/maximum temperature Probabilistic products. Forecast period +06...+30h (24 hours) Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 25, > 40, > 70 mm Probabilities of total snow Thresholds: > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm Probabilities of maximum wind speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s Probabilistic products. Forecast periods +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours) Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 20, > 50, > 100 mm Probabilities of total snow Thresholds: > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s Ensemble size per grid point at most 19 Apr-19

Maximum Ensemble Size Total precip. snow Wind speed gust Temperature depends on main run and meteorological parameter Total precip. snow Wind speed gust Temperature Maximum Ensemble Size 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 20 19 8 7 6 - 1 Ensemble size per grid point at most 19 Apr-19

Ensemble Mean 21/01/2005 00 UTC +06...30 Apr-19

21/01/2005 00 UTC +06...30 Apr-19

Cut-off times SRNWP-PEPS runs operationally since December 2004 Apr-19 Ensemble size per grid point at most 19 SRNWP-PEPS runs operationally since December 2004 Apr-19

provided by COSMO and some ALADIN countries Mask of areas without sufficient models Wind gusts provided by COSMO and some ALADIN countries statistical estimation of wind gusts within PEPS? Statistics of availability of models Additional products more synoptic oriented parameters indices of convectivity Precipitation median instead of mean lower thresholds PEPS-Meteograms (provided by Meteoswiss) running under way planned Apr-19

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Raftery et. al., 2005 Validation Comparison with COSMO-LEPS Scoring probabilistic forecasts Ensemble Calibration Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Raftery et. al., 2005 BMA for precipitation running under way planned Apr-19

Scientific use (products & individual forecasts) EURORISK Prev.I.EW windstorms workpackage MAP D-Phase (Mesoscale Alpine Program) Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts consistent forecast scenarios of precipitation from COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and LMK for the „MULDE“ catchment in Germany University Bochum, DWD, BAH Berlin, WASY Wind Power Prediction ”Optimal Combination of Local Area Models of European Weather Services with Regard to Wind Power Prediction” Energy & Meteo Systems, University Oldenburg, DWD Commercial use (products only) ECOMET product list running under way planned Apr-19

Thank you to the contributing Weather Services ! Apr-19