Investigation 1 A First look at Chance How you make decisions, you consider chance or the likelihood that something will happen.

Homework Bookwork page 19 12-18 even Worksheet on experimental probability IXL Up to 70 points V5 and V7

Vocab Probability mathematical word for chance, chance something will happen Experimental Probability the probability you find by conducting an experiment, using the data you collected Trial (outcomes) Each try in the experiment, each coin toss Favorable Outcomes trials in which the desired result occurs, getting heads Relative Frequency number of desired results to the total number of trials Equally Likely you have the same chance for getting all trials, head and tails

Likelihood something will happen Probability Likelihood something will happen Can’t be negative because we can’t have a negative number or outcomes or want a negative amount of something to happen

Investigation 1.1 Tossing Coins to Find Probability How does collecting more data help you predict the outcome of a situation?

Example Test your prediction – get a sheet from the front table and record the data from flipping a coin 30 times to represent everyday in June What happens to the percent of tosses that are heads? What if we add this with other groups what will happen?

Notes Do an experiment to get data Use the data to get fractions or percents of what you want to happen The more often you do the experiment, more data, the better your overall results

Investigation 1.2 Finding More Probabilities How does modeling with an experiment help you determine possible outcomes and the likelihood of each outcome?

Example

Example continued Conduct the experiment to test your prediction Toss a cup 50 times make a table and record your answer, similar to the coin toss

Notes Look for how many trials are in your favor versus not Think of part to part, in favor and not Again set up percents or fractions to represent this Your data should be getting close to what is called the theoretical outcomes

Investigation 1.3 Finding experimental Probabilities How do you determine the relative frequency of an outcome?

Experimental Probability Notes P(favorably outcome) =number of favorable outcomes / total number of trials P stands for probability Inside the ( ) is what you want to happen Think of how we solve and compared ratios to determine what would give us something the least orangey

Example Conduct an experiment by tossing a pair of coins 30 times. Keep track of the number of times the coins match and the number of times no math occurs. What are the possible results? Do a match and no match have the same chance of occurring?

Investigation 1.4 Understanding Equally Likely How can you determine whether the outcomes of a probability event are all equally likely, and why would this information matter?

Example

Note Does every outcome or trial have the same likelihood of happening Same number of outcomes for each item Nothing is repeated