Building on GLOBEC: evolution and revolution Ian Perry (GLOBEC Chair) Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, B.C., Canada Ian.Perry@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

GOAL: “To advance our understanding of the structure and functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem to global change”.

GLOBEC accomplishments A. Contributions to knowledge 1. Ecosystem structure and function 2. Forcings 3. Physical / Biological / Human interactions and feedbacks B. Innovative methodologies 1. Sampling and technological advances 2. Coupled models (trophic, scale, time) 3. Retrospective studies 4. Comparative approach (mostly regional) C. Information transfer 1. Policy (conceptual understanding of ecosystem function) 2. Managers (tools to incorporate climate-driven variability) 3. Communities (enhancing communication on global environmental change)

“Full system” models (beyond “End-to-End”) Evolutionary change What are the features and characteristics that control marine ecosystem capacities to adapt to change? “Full system” models (beyond “End-to-End”)

“Full system” models (beyond “End-to-End”) Evolutionary change What are the features and characteristics that control marine ecosystem capacities to adapt to change? “Full system” models (beyond “End-to-End”) Include: “physiological and genetic” ecology full spectrum of the “human dimensions” uncertainties associated with present models: marine productivity, upwelling responses, freshwater flows, thresholds

Revolutionary change “Surprises” or events at the edges of our awareness e.g. ocean acidification

Revolutionary change “Surprises” or events at the edges of our awareness e.g. ocean acidification funding of international “big ocean” science projects

Revolutionary change “Surprises” or events at the edges of our awareness e.g. ocean acidification funding of international “big ocean” science projects genomics, and the ability to rapidly identify and monitor organisms

Revolutionary change “Surprises” or events at the edges of our awareness e.g. ocean acidification funding of international “big ocean” science projects genomics, and the ability to rapidly identify and monitor organisms disease outbreaks in marine systems, their dynamics and consequences

Bark beetle outbreaks Raffa et al. 2008 BioScience

GLOBEC 3rd Open Science Meeting Victoria, BC, Canada 22-26 June 2009 www.globec.org