The Riksbank and monetary policy

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Presentation transcript:

The Riksbank and monetary policy Barbro Wickman-Parak, 14 August 2007

On the agenda: Interest rate decision in June Brief description of events over the summer Market reactions after the interest rate decision

Monetary policy meeting in June Decision to raise the repo rate from 3.25 to 3.50 per cent New (higher) interest rate path presented

The new interest rate path Per cent, quarterly average Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

Resource utilisation has risen and is continuing upwards Percentage deviation from HP-trend GDP Hours worked Employment Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Costs are rising Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Unit labour cost Labour cost per hour Productivity Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken line and bars refer to the Riksbank’s forecasts.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Household purchasing power boosted by tax cuts Annual percentage change and per cent Disposable income Contribution from households’ direct taxes Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Labour market has tightened Thousands of people and percentage of labour force Employed (left scale) Labour force (left scale) Number of unemployed (right scale) Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Labour shortages have increased Per cent, seasonally-adjusted data Manufacturing Three service sectors Construction Trade Note. Three Service sectors consist of haulage contractors, computer consultants and consultancy work Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Signs of aggravated shortages must be closely monitored Risk of higher wage increases or… …risk that employers will lower standards regarding qualifications which will lead to lower productivity In both cases and cost and inflationary pressures intensify

US housing market under focus in the financial markets Risk premiums have risen on the whole Individual institutions have been affected

National Accounts figures Q2 Growth in Q2 was marginally higher than forecast by the Riksbank in June Employment measured as the number of hours worked was stronger than expected Productivity growth weaker than expected

Productivity Annual percentage change PPR 2007:2 Preliminary outcome Q2, 2007 HP-trend, according to PPR 2007:2 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Inflation Annual percentage change UND1X UND1X excl. energy Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast, PPR 2007:2 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Interest rate expectations 19 and 20 June

Interest rate path; some reflections Positive that the Riksbank is presenting its own view of the repo rate Market unused to reacting to the interest rate path Joint learning process