Implications, adaptations & policies for economic development

Where are we in the programme? Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks/aquaculture species Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

Outline Revisit changes in tuna distribution Implications for government revenue and GDP Framework for adaptations Win-win adaptations Supporting policies

Projected changes in skipjack tuna Future distributions of tuna are likely to resemble those during El Nino events today Skipjack tuna Source: Lehodey et al. (1997)

Skipjack projection Vanuatu = +2 Vanuatu = +3 Vanuatu = -12 Unexploited Fishing effort x 1.5

Implications of altered skipjack catch Vanuatu’s two purse-seine vessels may eventually need to fish in the EEZs of nations further to the east – as they do now during El Nino events

Bigeye projection 2000 2000 Larval density Adult biomass 2050 2050 GAINS TO VE MADE IN THESE COUNTRIES WHERE THE FISH MOVE EASTERN. So now I will tell u the fish move to the east and why Good fishing grounds could be displaced further eastward

Implications of altered bigeye catch 2035 2050 2100 -3% -6% -10% Possible slight reduction in catches and export from Vanuatu’s EEZ

Adaptation decision framework Addresses climate change Long-term Loss Long-term Gain Lose-Lose X Lose-Win Win-Win x Near-term Loss Addresses present drivers Win-Lose Near-term Gain After Grafton (2010)

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Cap and trade provisions of VDS enable all PNA members to receive some benefits during ENSO events, regardless of where tuna are concentrated La Niña Ask El Niño Source of map: Lehodey et al. (1977)

‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Adaptations L-W W-W L-L W-L ‘Vessel Days Scheme’ to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Allocation of vessel days is adjusted regularly Ask 2050 S 2100 Source: Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al. (2011)

Adaptations Help develop and implement the VDS for the longline fishery

Adaptations Immediate conservation measures for tuna L-W W-W L-L W-L Immediate conservation measures for tuna Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and preventing overfishing of other tuna, will: maintain stocks at healthy levels make these valuable species more resilient to climate change Bigeye tuna

Adaptations Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels L-W W-W L-L W-L Energy audits for industrial fishing vessels Addresses likelihood of near-term rises in fuel costs Assists national fleets from west to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries Another way of using the tuna resource that does not create any conflict with local fishermen is to provide Fish Aggregation Devices which attract schools of oceanic fish making them easier for small scale fishermen to find and catch them. These have been promoted in the region for many years. The problem is that they do not last for ever – they need to be maintained and replaced periodically. There a need for Government fisheries agencies to build this into their work programmes and budgets Photo: Bruno Leroy

Other adaptations Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in the cyclone belt Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent inundation by rising sea levels and more severe cyclones

Suggested supporting policies Promote access agreements that are clear for all stakeholders; and strengthen national capacity to implement effort schemes Adjust tuna management plans to increase flexibility to sell tuna, or acquire tuna Include implications of climate change in management objectives of WCPFC

Suggested supporting policies Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level catch and effort data to improve tuna models Develop further measures to reduce capture of bigeye tuna by purse-seine Develop tuna products and distribution channels that minimise CO2 emissions

Conclusions Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities Supporting policies are required Integrate adaptations and policies into national strategies and action plans for climate change