Scenario Development 2.0 Ulf Pillkahn Silke Sasano Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Scenario Development 2.0 Corporate Technology Foresight Group Ulf Pillkahn Silke Sasano

Introduction Scenario Development 2.0 The difficulty is that we are used toAssess the future against our plans

The motivation for foresight … Scenario Development 2.0 The motivation for foresight …

Foresight: Expectations and Reality Scenario Development 2.0 Foresight: Expectations and Reality Foresight as … … a never ending story

The 2nd Generation Scenario development process … in a nutshell Input side (Information gathering) Analysis (Information processing) Output side (Transfer)

Representation of the changing environment (100%) Scenario Development 2.0 The model of the changing world The NEW Representation of the changing environment (100%) The CHANGING The CONSTANT Past Today Future Time horizon Before anticipating the future … … the present should be described and … the mechanism of change understood !

The model of the changing world Scenario Development 2.0 The model of the changing world Before anticipating the future … … the present should be described and … the mechanism of change understood !

The changing world, as we percept it. Scenario Development 2.0 The changing world, as we percept it. Change is more than just … … trends and driving forces !

… powerful foresight instruments. Scenario Development 2.0 Scenario Development Scenarios are … … powerful foresight instruments.

Environment ‘Outside-the-box’ Corporation ‘Inside-the-box’ Scenario Development 2.0 Introduction of Corporate Scenarios Elements Environment ‘Outside-the-box’ Corporation ‘Inside-the-box’ Paradigms Stable, constant features, e.g. physical constants, pursuit of happiness Reliable starting points, enterprise goals, principles, values and philosophies Trends Foreseeable change, e.g. societal aging Clear change that may be welcome or unwelcome, e.g. outsourcing Contradictions Dilemmas (e.g. ‘Tragedy of the commons’) and differences of opinion Mutually defeating efforts, e.g. team spirit versus measurements of personal performance Uncertainties Change whose further developments are unclear, e.g. scarcity of raw materials Change whose further developments are unclear, e.g. enterprise culture, continuity Chaos Unpredictable wildcards, e.g. catastrophes Surprising events, e.g. damage claims owing to defective products, hostile takeover New There must be something ‘new’ in the future. What could it be (for the environment) ? Corporations regenerate and renew itself during periods of change. What will be new than (for the organization) ? What works for the environment … … also works for the organization!

Identify robust strategy paths … … and define trigger points! Scenario Development 2.0 So what? Identify robust strategy paths … … and define trigger points!

Summary and Outlook The Future … … remains thrilling ! 1st Generation Scenario Development 2.0 Summary and Outlook 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation Focus on changes Based on forces and trends Scenarios as combination of trends Description of alternative paths in the future Organization as black box Introduction of a model for the changing world (constant, changing, new). Introduction of future elements (constant, trends, uncertainties, contra-dictions, chaos, new). Description of alternative paths in the future. Introduction of Corporate Scenarios in order to address the changes in the organization. Real-time scanning, monitoring and updating the ‘system’ with new information ??? Foresight as continuum ??? Foresight is integrated in Strategy Development of organizations ??? Increased reliability ??? ??? Outlook The Future … … remains thrilling !