The importance of the Pliocene and PlioMIP

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Presentation transcript:

The importance of the Pliocene and PlioMIP DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission The importance of the Pliocene and PlioMIP Prof. Alan M. Haywood School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK Thanks to Harry Dowsett and the PRISM Team and the PlioMIP Advisory Group plus many more… Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Inspiration... DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Inspiration... 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission To slight irritation.... CO2 change moderate compared to 21st century estimates Represents a long term steady-state not a transient style forcing Solution: PETM ideal analogue perturbation ? 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Analogue Issues Haywood et al. (2011). Phil Trans R. Soc. A. DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Analogue Issues 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Haywood et al. (2011). Phil Trans R. Soc. A. Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Analogue Issues MODERN: Annual mean Precip. DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Analogue Issues MODERN: Annual mean Precip. minus Evap. 2 × minus 1× PAL CO2 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS EOCENE: annual mean Precip. minus Evap. 2 × minus 1× PAL CO2 Haywood et al. (2011). Phil Trans R. Soc. A. Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

So why the Pliocene? We have abundant geological data for the Pliocene DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission So why the Pliocene? We have abundant geological data for the Pliocene Pliocene CO2 concentrations were almost the same as today Continents were in their modern positions Pliocene ecosystems were similar to modern 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Earth System Sensitivity DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Again... why the Pliocene? Climate Sensitivity Earth System Sensitivity 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Lunt et al. (2010). Nature Geoscience “The panellists were convinced of the utility of the Pliocene as a means to distinguish short and longer term climate/earth system sensitivity and associated ramifications for identifying a CO2 threshold that should not be crossed to avoid dangerous climate change”. Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Policy relevant tipping elements DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Policy relevant tipping elements 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Lenton et al. (2008). Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Our insights and vision is from the data... DESERT STORMS Our insights and vision is from the data... Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds 10

Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks... DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks... 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Annual mean temperature change (Pliocene minus Pre-Ind) Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks... DESERT STORMS Mechanisms, Forcings and Feedbacks... Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission CO2 Orog. 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Veg. Ice Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Policy Relevant Examples DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Policy Relevant Examples 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Ocean Circulation and Heat Transport DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Ocean Circulation and Heat Transport 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Ravelo et al. (2007) Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds 14

Climate Variability/Oscillations DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Climate Variability/Oscillations 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Wara et al. (2005) Mg/Ca SSTs 5 Age (Ma)‏ 3 Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

High Latitude Climate/Polar Amplification DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission High Latitude Climate/Polar Amplification 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Ballantyne et al. (2011) Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Ice Sheets and Sea Level DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Ice Sheets and Sea Level 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS b Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Elephant in the room - model dependency DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Elephant in the room - model dependency 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Elephant in the room - model dependency DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Elephant in the room - model dependency 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Looking to the future DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Looking to the future 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 4 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

Our job at this workshop... Prioritise those ideas DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission Our job at this workshop... 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Generate ideas Prioritise those ideas Deliver those ideas... Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds

DESERT STORMS Towards an Improved Representation of Meteoro-logical Processes in Models of Mineral Dust Emission 16 Institute and ca. 120 Wissenschaftler beteiligen sich an IMPETUS Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds