Dr. Paul Dosal, Vice President - Student Affairs & Student Success Shining the Light on Student Success at the University of South Florida Dr. Paul Dosal, Vice President - Student Affairs & Student Success May 1, 2018

Predicting First-Year Retention Rate

Top 10 Powerful PREDICTORS Consistency of Missed Days of Any LMS Activity Compared to the Section Average High School GPA Distance from Average Count of LMS Assignment Activities Merit Based Aid Per Attempted Credit Hour (Cumulative) Difference from Average in Count of Discrete Days of Any LMS Activity

Top 10 Powerful PREDICTORS High School Name Total Count of Canvas LMS Messaging (Prior Term) Average Number of Sections Attempted Per Term (Cumulative) Distance from Average Count of LMS Exam Activities Distance from Average in LMS Discussion Board Post Length

GPA Tipping Point

The A-Team Approach Charge Review and validate all insights Recommend stress tests Move from insights to changes to policy and practice Members VP – Student Affairs VP – Information Technology Associate Deans AVP – Institutional Research Professor - Analytics

Lessons Learned Analytics paints a picture of a possible future. The platforms don’t tell you what to do. Keep the focus on action, not research. You don’t get a users manual with the analytics platform.

The Urgency of NOW

FTIC Retention Rate *Source IPEDS: Data reported follows IPEDS methodology but are based on internal preliminary data.

Six-Year GRADUATION Rate *Source IPEDS: Data reported follows IPEDS methodology but are based on internal preliminary data.

Civitas Illume PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS 2-4% of Students Need Intervention

Created PERSISTENCE COMMITTEE Formed in early 2016; initial focus on 2015 cohort Cross functional team who identifies and supports all at-risk students through timely and appropriate interventions Academic Advocates (case managers) Financial Aid Housing & Residential Education Academic Advisors Academic Foundations Instructors Cashier’s Office Orientation Team Leaders Library Career Counselors New Student Connections Receives list of at-risk students weekly and segments into groups based on risk level

Right SUPPORT, Right STUDENT, Right TIME Persistence Committee and Academic Advocates identify at-risk students with early warning signs Meet, counsel and refer students to the appropriate expert Tap into a dynamic network of service providers (Care Team) to leverage expertise of numerous offices

Pushing Higher with a CASE MANAGEMENT Model

Emerging CASE MANAGEMENT Approach Civitas Prediction Distribution Triage by Persistence Committee Deliver Appropriate and Timely Support What is the likelihood that a student is likely to persist to the next semester? Diagnose the “illness”; Who knows the student? Who is in the best position to “treat” the student? High-Touch Care Urgent “cases” requiring immediate assistance Financial problems dominate Peer student outreach if possible Refer out if a health/wellness issue Coordinate Care Advocates manage cases for students Refer “cases” thru Archivum Insights Care Team shares notes on interventions Students linked to their care team Very Low Moderate Low High-Tech Guidance Use electronic tools to nudge and advise Automate reporting and communication Enhance Quality of Experience Promote HIPs Engage the student Very High High

Partnership with INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

Archivum Insights Platform Proprietary platform developed on Appian’s low code platform Assembles data from multiple sources Allows for academic advocates to manage student “cases” Supports all students, yet allows segmentation Connects all student support personnel and facilitates communications, referrals and follow-up Provides self-service capabilities for students

Student Success Dashboard Showing the Corral and access to other functions

My Cases and Referrals Ability to filter and search cases and referrals

Referrals Easily create referrals to departments or services

6-Year Graduation Rate: Race & Ethnicity *Source IPEDS: Data reported follows IPEDS methodology but are based on internal preliminary data.

6-Year Graduation Rate: PELL & NON-PELL *Source IPEDS: Data reported follows IPEDS methodology but are based on internal preliminary data.

6-Year Graduation Rate: GENDER *Source IPEDS: Data reported follows IPEDS methodology but are based on internal preliminary data.

CHALLENGES to Address Drive 6-Year Grad Rate to 80% Close Gender Gap Fully explore power of analytics Revise academic advising model to incorporate high tech and big data Bring ALL support personnel into the case management platform

RECOMMENDATIONS & “Do Overs” Predictive analytics gives you insight only Prepare for managing change in culture Decentralized academic advising structure is not optimal for the model Support services must shift from passive to active