Research needs: vulnerability, impacts, adaptation and mitigation Jean Palutikof Technical Support Unit, IPCC Working Group II Hadley Centre, UK Met Office

Research needs from the WGII TAR SPM Quantitative assessments, with emphasis on extremes, range of climate variation Thresholds at which strongly discontinuous responses triggered Understanding dynamic responses of ecosystems to multiple stresses at a range of scales Adaptation: estimation of effectiveness and costs of options, opportunities, obstacles, by region, nation, population Assessment of impacts in multiple metrics, with consistent treatment of uncertainties, taking into account stabilization and other policy scenarios Tools: integrated assessment, risk assessment Opportunities to include scientific information in decision making Improvement of systems and methods for long-term monitoring

How is WGII AR4 0rganized? Observed changes (1) New assessment methodologies (2) Sectoral chapters (3, 4, 5, 7, 8) Regional chapters Location (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14) Typology (6, 15, 16) Synthesising chapters Adaptation (17) Adaptation and mitigation (18) Key vulnerabilities and risks (19) Climate change and sustainable development (20)

Cross-cutting themes Important in defining research needs and incorporating them into the assessment Uncertainties (Maynooth, May 2004) Article 2 and key vulnerabilities (Buenos Aires, May 2004) Adaptation & mitigation (Amsterdam, September 2004) Regional integration (Llubljana, September 2004)

1. Quantitative assessment, extremes This is a message to be taken into account throughout the assessment Extremes May lie beyond current experience and hence the capacity of impact models Need to explore literature on present-day responses to extremes and their management: flood studies, windstorm impact, heat stress Abrupt climate change (Chapter 2). The literature on the impacts of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation Change in range of climate variation

Change in climate variation: generally the emphasis until now has been on changes in the mean climate. We need to understand the impacts of changes in climate variability at a range of scales: decadal, inter-annual, seasonal, daily, and taking into account large-scale atmospheric regimes such as ENSO and the NAO.

2. Thresholds Strongly discontinuous responses to projected climate change Change in related response rate Step change in response variable Climate change Ecosystems: species extinctions Health: arrival of malaria Time

3. Dynamic ecosystem response to multiple stresses Will be addressed primarily in Chapter 4, Ecosystems and their Services CLAs: Fischlin and Midgley But should also be taken into account in the regional suite of chapters Stresses will include climate, direct effects of CO2, pollutants

4. Adaptation CLAs Adger, Agrawala, Mirza Topics: Methods and concepts Assessment of current adaptation practices Assessment of adaptation capacity Enhancing adaptation: opportunities, transfer of technologies, constraints, adaptive learning Important role for practitioners WGII also has a chapter on Adaptation & Mitigation (CLAs Huq, Klein) Mitigation strategies (top-down) and adaptation (bottom-up) strategies; mixes, synergies Issues of scale and timing

5. Impacts: metrics, consistent treatment of uncertainties These are issues threading throughout the WGII Assessment, and concern not only Impacts but Chapters 17 and 18 also. Metrics: If we seek for a more quantitative assessment How do we measure impacts, numeraires for valuing impacts. In monetary, non-monetary terms? Issues of equity, justice, rights-based frameworks. How do we achieve it in sectors such as ecosystems? Uncertainties: The need for precision in language – this is not new to the AR4 but remains a vital issue, related to credibility. What is meant by likely, very likely, probable etc. The need to state confidence/uncertainty, using standard errors, confidence limits.

Tools: integrated assessment, risk assessment; to investigate: Natural/human system interactions Consequences of policy decisions Chapter 2, New assessment methodologies, CLAs Carter (Finland), Lu (UK/China), Jones (Australia) Assessment of opportunities to include scientific information in decision making Improvement of systems and methods for long-term monitoring Recommendations likely to emerge from Chapter 1 (CLAs: Casassa (Chile), Rosenzweig (USA))

Role of the cross-cutting themes

Key vulnerabilities (Article 2) Chapter 19 (Patwardhan, Schneider, Semenov) Concepts and methods, taking into account the broad framework of past IPCC activities, Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, WEHAB framework developed at World Summit on Sustainable Development Identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities Role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities Climate scenarios likely to lead to the exceedance of thresholds, and their associated probabilities Role of mitigation in achieving stabilization and avoiding/delaying key vulnerabilities

Regional Integration Plan to develop regional case studies which will thread as a series of chapter boxes throughout the WGII assessment Starting point: Information on regional climate changes/SLR from WGI Information on technological, economic, social futures from WGIII End point – feeding into and informing Chapter 20 (Climate change and sustainability) For example: Southern Africa , drought, causes, role of seasonal forecasting Western Europe, role of NAO, abrupt climate change

The writing process: where we stand Author list is nearly complete but reveals itself to be a strongly asymptotic process 47 Co-ordinating Lead Authors 134 Lead Authors 40 Review Editors First Lead Author meeting is to be held September 20 -23 204 in Vienna