MINGGU KE 13: ANALISIS EKONOMI PENGEMBANGAN PRODUK

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Presentation transcript:

MINGGU KE 13: ANALISIS EKONOMI PENGEMBANGAN PRODUK

ELEMENTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (ULRICH, 2000) +$ Sales Revenue Cumulative Inflow or Outflow ($) TIME Development Cost Ramp-up Costs Marketing and Support Costs +$ Production Cost TYPICAL CASH FLOWS FOR A SUCCESFUL NEW PRODUCT

WHEN SHOULD ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BE PERFORMED? (ULRICH, 2000) GO/NO-GO MILESTONES OPERATIONAL DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT DECISIONS

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS PROCESS (ULRICH, 2000) BUILD A BASE CASE FINANCIAL MODEL PERFORM A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS USE THE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO UNDERSTAND TRADE-OFFS CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITIVE FACTORS ON PROJECT SUCCESS

TAHAP 1 : BUILD A BASE-CASE FINANCIAL MODEL ESTIMATE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CASH INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS 2. COMPUTE THE NET PRESENT VALUE OF THE CASH FLOWS

TAHAP 2 : PERFORM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INTERNAL FACTORS : Development Expense Investigation cost Development cost Development Speed Investigation time Development time Production Cost Product Performance EXTERNAL FACTORS : Product Price Sales Volume Competitive Environment PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Net Present Value

TAHAP 3 : USE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TO UNDERSTAND PROJECT TRADE-OFFS PRODUCT COST DEVELOPMENT TIME DEVELOPMENT COST PRODUCT PERFORMANCE POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN INTERNALLY DRIVEN FACTORS

LIMITATION OF QUATITATIVE ANALYSIS IT FOCUSES ONLY ON MEASURABLE QUANTITIES IT DEPENDS ON VALIDITY OF ASSUMPTIONS AND DATA BUREAUCRACY REDUCES PRODUCTIVITY

LANGKAH 4 : CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITATIVE FACTORS ON PROJECT SUCCESS (1) FIRM MARKET MACRO ENVIRONMENT THE BROADER CONTEXT OF A DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

3. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT LANGKAH 4 : CONSIDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE QUALITATIVE FACTORS ON PROJECT SUCCESS (2) INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE FIRM AS A WHOLE * EKSTERNALITIES * STRATEGIC FIT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MARKET COMPETITORS CUSTOMERS SUPPLIERS 3. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE PROJECT AND THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT * MAJOR ECONOMIC SHIFTS * GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS * SOCIAL TRENDS

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