Rules for Constructing Causal Theories King, Keohane and Verba 99-109

Rules for Constructing Causal Theories Same as causality: the objective is to demonstrate that a variable causes or causes a change in another variable. Internally Consistent: Theories need to be internally consistent.

Rule 1: Construct Falsifiable Theories A theory incapable of being wrong is not a theory. In fact, a theory should be designed so that: 1) It can be shown to be wrong as easily as possible 2) It is tentative. 3) Should be prepared to reject the theory as soon as possible.

Falsification Theories are NOT verifiable: Too many possible Hypotheses No particular theory can in fact be verified, since there are there are an infinite number of possible hypotheses. Hence, the objective is not to prove a theory, but to test its boundaries of applicability. Falsification A falsified theory does not claim universal application. Rather it admits that it applies only to some circumstances, but not all. It can, then, be proven wrong. It is valid under certain conditions or in a particular setting. There are, in other words, boundaries its applicability.

Falsification Example: Theory: In American politics, presidential campaigns have a very limited effect on voter preferences. Hypothesis: There could be dozens or more: 1) Campaign ads have no effect 2) Debates have no effect Etc.

Falsification We cannot test them all to see if any contradict the theory. It still might be the case, that in some situation, campaigns do have an effect. Solution: we should not try to explain everything. Modify the theory so it asserts less: Theory: In American politics, presidential campaigns have a very limited effect on voter preferences, unless a candidate is viewed as dangerous. (1964) (This is not a universal claim. It boundaries are clearly stated.)

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Rule 2: Build Theories that are Internally Consistent Internal Consistency is related to Reliability Reliability: “is the extent to which an experiment, test, or any measuring procedure yields the same result on repeated trials.” Internal Consistency: If any part of your theory contradicts another, it is internally inconsistent, no evidence from the empirical world will uphold your theory. You cannot say that some population has contradictory practices and beliefs. Formal models: can help with internal consistency.

Rule 3: Select DV Carefully Need to avoid selection bias. Should not select cases on DV DV should not be constant. Do no pick just countries with revolutions, for example, if you want to study the factors that facilitate social revolution. Choose DV that vary Have cases were there were and were not revolutions.

Rules 4 and 5 Rule 4: Maximize Concreteness Need to operationalize hypotheses. Rule 5: State Theories in as Encompassing Way as Feasible Value of generalizations. …

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 (IV: Cause) is related to Variable 2 (DV: Effect) Operational Definition: IV: Definition of Cause DV: Definition of Effect

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Inequality and Democracy Hypothesis: Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV). Operational Definitions: IV: (Inequality): Income Levels DV: (Democracy): Voting IV: (Inequality): Political Contributions DV: (Democracy): Representation IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response

Topic: Inequality and Democracy Essay Outlines Introduction: Topic: Inequality and Democracy Question: How does Inequality affect Democracy? Thesis: Racial Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV). Hypothesis: The federal response to a crisis will vary by the racial density of a city. Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response (Selection Bias: Look at Variety of DVs: Instances where the government responded to a crisis. Does the same cause always have the same effect?)

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: SSM and 2004 Election Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). Operational Definitions: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot DV: (Bush Reelection): Republican Voting % by state Selection Bias: Variation on DV DV: (Bush Win): Rep. Voting % in state DV: (Bush Loss): Rep. Voting % in state You cannot just look at states where Bush won. You need to look at states where he lost, and where SSM ban or may not have been on the ballot.

Essay Outlines Introduction: Topic: SSM and 2004 Election Question: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush’s reelection? Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot DV: (Bush Win): Rep. Voting % in state DV: (Bush Loss): Rep. Voting % in state

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Conservatism and US Foreign Policy Thesis: Bush embraced a crusading, unilateral approach to foreign policy. Hypothesis: After Bush’s election (IV), the US became less likely to seek multi-literal support (DV) when confronted by threats from abroad. Operational Definitions: IV: (Bush): His election (2000-2009) DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Iraq. DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan. DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Gulf War I and II (before and after study of Bush). DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Korea, Vietnam, GWI compared with Afghan and GWII (before and after study of Bush, times series).

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Liberalism and US Foreign Policy Thesis: Obama did not challenge or change the largely unilateral approach to foreign policy developed by the Bush administration. Hypothesis: After Obama’s election (IV), the US became more likely to use a unilateral approach to foreign policy (DV) as evidenced by the expanded use of drones. Operational Definitions: IV: (Obama): His election (2008-2016) DV: (Unilateralism): Number of US drone attacks during the Bush admin. DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US drone attacks during the Obama admin. DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Gulf War I and II (before and after study of Bush). DV: (Multi-literalism): Number of US Allies In Korea, Vietnam, Iraq I (before and after study of Bush, times series).

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: US Culture and Foreign Policy Thesis: During the Bush years, US Foreign Policy (DV) was defined by a culture of unilateralism (IV). Hypothesis: During the Bush presidency, culture of unilateralism (IV) in the pentagon made it less likely (inversed relationship) for the US to seek international support (DV) for its foreign policy. Operational Definitions: IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of Pentagon/White House. DV: (Inter. Support): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan and Iraq.

Essay Outlines Introduction: Topic: US Culture and Foreign Policy Question: Is a Culture of Unilateralism shaping US Foreign Policy? Thesis: A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) defines US Foreign Policy (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Research Design: Quasi-Experimental: Before and After DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq during Bush admin DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq during Obama admin

Essay Outlines Introduction: Topic: US Culture and Foreign Policy Question: Is a Culture of Unilateralism shaping US Foreign Policy? Thesis: (Hypothesis): A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) is shapes US Foreign Policy (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan

Essay Outlines Introduction: Topic: SSM and 2004 Election Question: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush’s reelection? Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot DV: (Bush Win): Rep. Voting % by state DV: (Bush Loss): Rep. Voting % by state

Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Women and Politics Hypothesis: Gender (IV) had a defining effect on Nancy Pelosi’s election as Speaker of the House of Representatives. (DV). Operational Definitions: IV: (Gender): Gender of Candidate DV: (Leadership): Likelihood a Woman are Elected as a Leader.