Integrated Assessment Modelling: Applications at different scales Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 T. Pignatelli, L. Ciancarella, I. DElia, M. Bencardino Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment ENEA – Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment ENEA – Italian Agency for New Technology, Energy and the Environment Department for the Environment, Global Change and Sustainable Development

Overview Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 In this presentation: Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment The concept of Integrated Approach Integrated Approach in Air Pollution Modelling Applications at different scales Continental, National, Local Future perspectives Conclusions

Some historical hints In the sixties, acidification effects were detected, in the Scandinavian rivers and lakes, due to the transboundary nature of some air pollutants, like sulphur oxides, recognized upon extensive international research. In the seventies, the acidification became an issue in Canada, as several studies demostrated the link between sources in US and Eastern Canada and the acid deposition in the sensitive Canadian Shield. The concept of Integrated Approach Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008

Historical hints (2) In the frame of the UN-ECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) increasing awareness of Air Pollution transboundary effects finally led to the definition of legally binding protocols, to take common actions. The driving forces have changed over time, from politics to public concern, environmental damage and, more recently, health concern. The concept of Integrated Approach Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008

Historical hints (3) Along years, with the improvement of the scientific knowlegde and awareness, other effects related to air pollution were taken into account. Damage to forest, crops, materials and human health became increasingly evident, due to other pollutants (e.g. Nitrogen oxides and ozone). In time it became clear the causes of those effects were correlated among them, and had to be addressed simultaneously, so introducing the Integrated Approach concept. The concept of Integrated Approach Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008

The solution of complex problems, like combating the effects of Air Pollution, implies the investigation of all the concerned aspects, looking at links, sinergies and trade- offs, pursuing the most effective actions to simultaneously address the causes behind. In addressing the Air Pollution, science research issues, technology developments, impact on the environment and human health, macro-economic aspects, social implications, etc. are simultaneously In addressing the Air Pollution, science research issues, technology developments, impact on the environment and human health, macro-economic aspects, social implications, etc. are simultaneously tackled. Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Integrated Assessment Approach applied to Air Pollution

Integrated Assessment Approach applied to Air Pollution Simplified flow chart Emissions Atmospheric dispersion Depositions & concentrations Health/Env Effects Control technologies Costs of implementation Social aspects GDP/capita costs Economic Development Anthropogenic activities Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008

The application of the previous schema allows: Target settings (emission, impact, costs, etc.) Cost-benefit analysis, through comparison of alternative options Multi-scenario analysis (e.g. business as usual, CLE, MTFR, etc.) Identification of specific mitigation measures for all atmospheric pollutants across all economic sectors to achieve the environmental targets, at least costs Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Integrated Assessment Approach applied to Air Pollution

Introduction and evaluation of economic instruments (e.g. emission trading) Evaluation of the level of social equity in policy development (cost/capita) Evaluation of relative contributions from different geographycal areas (even at hemispherical scale) Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Integrated Assessment Approach applied to Air Pollution

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at Regional scale The UN-ECE CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol Development of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) Review of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD) Three most relevant examples of application, at regional scale, in:

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at Regional scale The Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP, doc COM(2005) 446 final) Overall targets in EU 1.Reduce health impact from particulate matter by 47 %; 2.Reduce acute mortality from ozone by 10 %; 3.Reduce acidification in ecosystem forest areas by 74%; 4.Reduce acidification in ecosystem freshwaters areas by 39 %; 5.Reduce eutrophication ecosystem areas by 43 % 6.Reduce ozone impact on forest areas by 15 %.

Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Energy projections (developed with PRIMES) compliant with Climate & Energy Package. Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Economic development and energy policy as in PRIMES Nov 2007 baseline Environmental objectives of TSAP as developed in CAFE Applications at Regional scale Review of the National Emission Ceiling Directive (NEC)

TSAP objectives and NEC targets Unit2000EU-27TSAPObjective for EU-25 NEC target for EU YOLLs Million years %114.3 Eutrophication 1000 km %473.9 Acidification %67.4 OzonePrem.deaths %18265 From IIASA official doc : NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 6 Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008

Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Environmental improvements and emission reductions, central case, EU-27, 2020, NEC From IIASA official doc : NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 6 Impact reductions Emission reductions

Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 From IIASA official doc : NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 6 Life Expectancy reduction consistently with TSAP objectives and NEC targets

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at National scale Morerecently, similar projects, based on GAINS methodology, More recently, similar projects, based on GAINS methodology, have been established in Ireland, Sweden and Scandinavian Countries The RAINS methodology was initially developed, at national scale, for Italy and the Netherlands (by IIASA ) Several other national IAM Projects in Europe are represented Within the NIAM group (National Integrated Assessment Modelling ), as part of the TFIAM, the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling, under the UN-ECE CLRTAP. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at National scale Nevertheless, RAINS_Italy has been successfully used in the frame of: In Italy, the transition between RAINS_IT and GAINS_IT is in Progress, on behalf of ENEA. The CLRTAP Gothenburg ProtocolThe CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol The Review of the NEC DirectiveThe Review of the NEC Directive European Centre of stock of MATerials at riskEuropean Centre of stock of MATerials at risk (ECMAT under UN-ECE CLRTAP) (ECMAT under UN-ECE CLRTAP) Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at National scale Some examples in Italy Review of the NEC Directive NOx SOx VOC NH3 NEC target: 475 kton NEC target: 990 kton Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment NEC target: 1159 kton NEC target: 419 kton

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at National scale Some examples Life expectancy reductions ( life months ) due to anthropogenic PM 2,5 at 2000 (right) and 2020 (left) (CLE scenario), in Italy 31% improvement in LER is estimated in 2020, with respect 2000 Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at National scale Some examples Premature Deaths by exposure to Ozone (deaths/y) Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment CLE 2000 CLE 2010 MTFR 2010

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at National scale Evaluation of corrosion effects on Cultural Heritage, in Italy Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment International Cooperative Programme on Effects of Air Pollutants on Materials including Cultural Monuments (ICP Materials). UNESCO European CH Monument map ICP Material Dose/Response functions (for limestone, sandstone, copper) SOx deposition (mg/m2), at 2005, calculated by RAINS

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at Local Scale Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Air Quality Measures in Enengy and Residential Sectors, in Lombardy Emission reductions, with respect the CLE scenario, at 2010, calculated by RAINS_IT

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at Local Scale Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Air Quality Measures in the Trasport Sector, in Lombardy Emission reductions, with respect the CLE scenario, at 2010, calculated by RAINS_IT

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Applications at Local Scale Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Change in PM 10 concentrations due to AQ Plan implementation, in whole Italy (μg/m3) (%)(%)

Future perspectives Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Evolution of Integrated Assessment Modelling: Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Extension to Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) allows analyses of synergies and trade offs between Air Pollution and Climate Change and estimation of Co-benefits (GAINS Methodology) Integration and interaction among different models (EC4MAC Project On technical side, the attention will focus on Methane, Black Carbon, Ozone precursors and uncontrolled use of Biomasses (as in the outcome of the recent Stockholm Conference

Future perspectives Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 At national level, in Italy, in the frame of a Convention between ENEA and the Italian Ministry for the Environment, the Land and the Sea the Integrated Assessment Modelling System MINNI is under further development. Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment In particular, in the next future, GAINS_IT will become GAINS_IT on line, to allow experts from Local Authorities to independently develop policy scenarios, through remote access, as registered users. RAINS_IT is expanding to GAINS_IT while the Atmospheric Modelling System (AMS) will comprise more meteorological years and additional features in Atmospheric Chemistry (marine aerosol, desert dust, improvement of radiative fluxes etc.).

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Conclusions Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) has proved to be a powerful and flexible instrument to support the policy makers in developing cost-effective solutions to combat Air Pollution and identify sinergies and co-benefits with Climate Change. The intrinsec flexibility of IAM allows successful applications at regional, national, local level, as well as, interaction with other models. Recently, a proliferation of National IAM Projects is observed, while, in international fora, the exchange of experience and information is encouraged, among the differnt projects.

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Conclusions Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment IAM evolves continuously, underpinned by the work of the international scientific community, toward a more and more comprehensive modelling of physical, chemical, socio-economic aspects and their inter-relations. At National and Local level, the cooperation and interaction with experts in the several fields involved, is encouraged, recognizing the need for improving the quality of the input data and minimizing the uncertainties, pursuing the ultimate objective of the highest level of robustness of the analyses.

Air Quality assessment strategies: addressing the new Air Quality Directive and CAFE Thematic Strategy JRC ISPRA, November, 2008 Thanks for your attention! Italian Agency for New Technology Energy and the Environment Some useful links: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM, meetings and Chairs reports) UN-ECE CLRTAP UN-ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) National Integrated Modelling System to support the International Negotiation on Air Pollution