Small Group Discussions PEMPAL TCOP Cash Management Thematic Group Meeting Small Group Discussions November 8, 2018 Countries: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Ukraine Vienna, Austria November 7-9, 2018

Question 1: What is your assessment of the development level of the cash flow forecasting in PEMPAL member countries? The forecasting function development levels are different, and some of the countries experience problems in the development of this area Not all of the countries have specialized cash forecasting units. Where these exist, they are mainly part of the Treasuries while in a limited number of instances they are integrated into debt management units… The number of specialists engaged in forecasting in the majority of cases is very small (2-5 people, Russia being an exception) Специальных программ

Question 1: What is your assessment of the development level of the cash flow forecasting in PEMPAL member countries? Planning horizon – in the majority of cases, cash plans are designed for one year distributed by quarter or month. Higher frequency (by day or week) forecasts are not produced in all the countries No one uses specialized software for forecasting; Excel is mainly the SW of choice, while treasury systems are an important source of data The countries that monitor the forecasting quality demonstrate high indicator values (3-5-7%), but not all countries collect and analyze information on quality Специальных программ

Question 2. What are the main issues and difficulties that face PEMPAL countries in cash flow forecasting? How do you resolve them? Problems related to submission of information and information quality (information owners are reluctant to submit the information). Possible solution – software for automated collection of information Lack of fixed payment deadline Possible solution – determine a standard period for payments (in western countries from 30-45 days; Russia is planning to introduce a 5-day period) Insufficient frequency of forecasts – not all produce weekly or daily forecasts. A number of countries have plans to develop daily forecasting Insufficiently developed information systems, lack of historical databases. Solution – further development of information systems, forming historical databases and historical analytical data series. Very few staff engaged in the forecasting process; loss of any specialist is very noticeable. Systematic staff training work and development of incentivizing mechanisms.

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