Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Energy Outlook For International Monetary Fund January 14, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Energy Outlook For International Monetary Fund January 14, 2013 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy standards The U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the early 2020s U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2040 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Growth in energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to reduction in net imports 3 U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Consumption Production Net imports 9% 19% 10% HistoryProjections Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Petroleum 4 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory 5 Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel ProjectionsHistory 2011 High Oil Price Low Oil Price Reference Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Tight oil Alaska Other lower 48 onshore Lower 48 offshore ProjectionsHistory 2011 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

New light-duty vehicle fuel economy approaches 50 mpg by New LDV fuel efficiency miles per gallon Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release 2011 ProjectionsHistory Summary of LDV standards :Increase to 34.1 mpg CAFE average in 2016 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution) :Increase to 47.4 mpg CAFE average in 2025 (based on vehicle footprint sales distribution) Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards 8 Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release AEO2012 AEO2013 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines 9 Transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu ProjectionsHistory % Motor gasoline E85 Jet fuel CNG/LNG 11% 13% 4% 29% 47% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release 2% Pipeline fuel 3% 4% Other 4% Diesel 22% 1% Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades 10 Annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2011 million barrels per day Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly net product exporter Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines 11 U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Consumption Domestic supply Net imports 45% 37% ProjectionsHistory % 2005 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable 12 Global liquids supply million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory 2011 OPEC Other non-OECD OECD 44% 25% 31% 40% 26% 34% Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Natural Gas 13 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Shale gas production leads growth in production through U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Associated with oil Coalbed methane Tight gas Shale gas Alaska Non-associated onshore Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory 2011 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

15 U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory Industrial* Electric power Commercial Residential Transportation ** 33% 14% 6% 32% 12% 33% 19% 3% 31% 13% *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Gas to liquids 2% Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come? 16 U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu Pipeline fuel Light-duty vehicles 2011 HistoryProjections 95% 3% 1% 28% 38% 3% 31% 1% Buses Freight trucks Gas to liquids Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory 2011 Consumption Domestic supply Net imports Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case 18 U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Alaska LNG exports Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Coal and Electricity 19 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to U.S. electricity use percent growth (3-year rolling average) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency Projections History 2011 Period Annual Growth 1950s s s s s Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source 21 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 25% 19% 42% 13% 1% Nuclear Oil and other liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables 2011 ProjectionsHistory 17% 16% 35% 30% 1% % 13% 19% 11% 4% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases 22 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Natural gas 2012 Reference Case $15 Carbon Fee $25 Carbon Fee Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal % 10% 20% 45% 28% 15% 18% 38% 34% 22% 27% 16% 34% 23% 38% 4% Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis 23 ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release History Projections dollars per Btu HistoryProjections2011 Competitive parity Energy prices to the electric power sector Coal Natural gas Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

U.S. continues to be a net exporter of coal 24 million short tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Projections History 2011 Consumption Domestic Supply Net imports Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and Non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Wind Solar Geothermal Waste Biomass Industrial CHP Power sector Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible) 2011 ProjectionsHistory Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

Energy and CO 2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines 26 Energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release HistoryProjections 2011 Carbon dioxide emissions per 2005 dollar of GDP Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP Energy use per capita 2005 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO 2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level 27 Carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release ProjectionsHistory (billion metric tons) %-5.1% (percent change from 2005) AEO2013 Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013

For more information 28 U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | Annual Energy Outlook | Short-Term Energy Outlook | International Energy Outlook | Today In Energy | Monthly Energy Review | Annual Energy Review | Adam Sieminski January 14, 2013