Considerations for a Successful Retirement

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Presentation transcript:

Considerations for a Successful Retirement Date / Place The retirement landscape is changing. In fact, the traditional notion of retirement, in which you stop working to enjoy some leisure time is fast becoming obsolete for more and more Americans. Today’s presentation will take a look at the trends and the implications you need to consider while planning for retirement, so that you can design and implement a plan that has the potential to succeed. Variable Annuities: Are Not a Deposit of Any Bank • Are Not FDIC Insured by Any Federal Government Agency • Are Not Guaranteed by Any Bank or Savings Association • May Go Down in Value GE-117878 (8/16) (Exp. 8/18) ML 16-004484 AXA Equitable Life Insurance Company (NY, NY)

Retirement Challenges Agenda Retirement Challenges Reliability of Guaranteed Income Strategy and Next Steps

Retirement Challenges Longevity I Inflation V Volatility I Interest Rates T Taxes

Probability of one spouse surviving (%) Retirement Challenges: Longevity Probability of one spouse surviving (%) 100 99.7 93.1 80 60 58.1 40 30.2 20 Age 70 80 90 95 Source: Society of Actuaries RP-2000

How Much Longer Will a 65 Year Old Live? The Probabilities Probability (%) A 65-year-old female has greater than 40% probability of living to at least age 90. There’s almost a 1-in-3 chance that at least one member of a 65-year-old couple will live to at least age 95. 100 80 60 40 Single Female 20 Couple 70 75 80 85 90 95 Age Source: Society of Actuaries 2000 U.S Annuity Table

1970 2000 2030 Retirement Challenges: Inflation $400,054 $169,000 $23,400 $5.04 $1.51 $0.35 $5.78 Inflation reduces your purchasing power A dollar today will likely be worth less at retirement because of inflation. Since everyday items may get more expensive over time, you need to plan for future price increases when saving for retirement. While it is difficult to predict inflation rates, even a 3% rate of inflation (just below the historical average of 3.7%) can have a significant impact on purchasing power and on your future standard of living. $2.70 $0.60 1970 2000 2030 Sources for the above: The People History: 70 Years of Price Change - http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/70yearsofpricechange.html The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy - http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-835-august-25-average-historical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2013 The United States Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf Economagic.com - http://www.economagic.com/ Projected with 3% inflation

Retirement Challenges: Volatility Hypothetical Example “Up” Market — Mr. Green Age Annual Return Year End Value 65 $1,000,000 66 5% $1,050,000 67 28% $1,344,000 68 22% $1,639,680 69 -5% $1,557,696 70 20% $1,869,235 71 19% $2,224,390 72 23% $2,736,000 73 9% $2,982,240 74 16% $3,459,398 75 $4,255,059 76 $5,191,172 77 -26% $3,841,468 78 -15% $3,265,247 79 $3,428,510 80 14% $3,908,501 81 24% $4,846,541 82 $5,525,057 83 8% $5,967,062 84 -16% $5,012,332 85 $5,262,949 86 21% $6,368,168 87 $7,387,075 88 -10% $6,648,367 89 -14% $5,717,596 90 -25% $4,288,197 Average Return 6.0% “Down” Market — Mr. Blue Annual Return Year End Value $1,000,000 -25% $750,000 -14% $645,000 -10% $580,500 16% $673,380 21% $814,790 5% $855,529 -16% $718,645 8% $776,136 14% $884,795 24% $1,097,146 $1,250,747 $1,313,284 -15% $1,116,291 -26% $826,056 22% $1,007,788 23% $1,239,579 $1,437,912 9% $1,567,324 $1,927,808 19% $2,294,092 20% $2,752,910 -5% $2,615,264 $3,190,623 28% $4,083,997 $4,288,197 6.0% Annual Return 5% 28% 22% -5% 20% 19% 23% 9% 16% -26% -15% 14% 24% 8% -16% 21% -10% -14% -25% Annual Return -25% -14% -10% 16% 21% 5% -16% 8% 14% 24% -15% -26% 22% 23% 9% 19% 20% -5% 28% Volatility, or in this case, the sequence in which you experience returns, can have a real impact to your clients’ retirement. In this hypothetical example, Mr. Green and Mr. Blue experience the same returns, but in opposite order, in their retirement portfolios. Each portfolio ends up with the same average annual rate of return of 6.0% after 25 years of investing. What is of note here is that no withdrawals are taken. $4,288,197 $4,288,197 6.0% 6.0%

Retirement Challenges: Volatility Hypothetical Example “Up” Market — Mr. Green Age 5% Annual Withdrawals Annual Return Year End Value 65 $1,000,000 66 $50,000 5% $1,050,000 67 28% $1,230,000 68 22% $1,450,600 69 -5% $1,328,070 70 20% $1,543,684 71 19% $1,786,984 72 23% $2,147,990 73 9% $2,291,309 74 16% $2,607,919 75 $3,157,740 76 $3,802,443 77 -26% $2,763,808 78 -15% $2,299,237 79 $2,364,199 80 14% $2,645,186 81 24% $3,230,031 82 $3,632,235 83 8% $3,872,814 84 -16% $3,203,164 85 $3,313,322 86 21% $3,959,120 87 $4,542,579 88 -10% $4,038,321 89 -14% $3,422,956 90 -25% $2,517,217 Average Return 6.0% “Down” Market — Mr. Blue 5% Annual Withdrawals Annual Return Year End Value $1,000,000 $50,000 -25% $700,000 -14% $552,000 -10% $446,800 16% $468,288 21% $516,628 5% $492,460 -16% $363,666 8% $342,760 14% $340,746 24% $372,525 $374,679 $343,412 -15% $241,901 -26% $129,006 22% $107,388 23% $82,087 $45,221 $49,291 9% $0 19% 20% -5% 28% 6.0% 5% Annual Withdrawal $50,000 5% Annual Withdrawal $50,000 $49,291 $0 Once these clients each begin taking withdrawals, the sequence of returns has a significant impact on their portfolio’s overall value, even if the average return is the same. Client in the green begins withdrawals in an up market, which gives him the optimal environment to maintain his portfolio value. Client in the blue is not as lucky. Withdrawals in a down market may deplete investors’ portfolios when they are not prepared. 84 $0 90 $2,517,217 6.0% 6.0%

Interest Rates & Inflation: Historically

Interest Rates & Inflation: Historically There is no assurance that historical trends will continue in the future.

The Tax Bite How much you pay in taxes during retirement depends on where your income comes from. 76% of middle-income baby boomers consider tax deferral an important feature when selecting a retirement income product. The IRS collect over $3 Trillion in taxes annually. Source: https://us.axa.com/annuities/retirement-cornerstone/app/ycnTaxBite.html; as of 7/28/16

Taxes – The Advantages of Tax Deferral $100k Initial Investment assumed 6% Rate of Return (not guaranteed) per year over 30 years 28% federal income tax rate This hypothetical chart does not represent actual performance of any specific product or investment. Withdrawals of tax-deferred earnings are subject to ordinary income tax. A 10% federal income tax penalty may also apply if you take the withdrawal before you reach age 59½. Dividends and sales profits on annually taxed investments are generally taxed at capital gains tax rates, which can be lower than ordinary federal income tax rates. Using capital gains tax rates with the taxed annually investment would reduce the difference between the taxed annually and tax-deferred accounts shown above. Please note that this illustration excludes expenses associated with the Retirement Cornerstone variable annuity including administration, distribution and mortality & expense charge (1.30%) and portfolio expense charge (0.62% - EQ/Equity 500 Index) as of February 2016. Consider your personal investment horizon and income tax bracket, both current and anticipated, when making an investment decision. These factors as well as changes in tax rates and the treatment of investment earnings may further affect the results of this comparison. The contingent withdrawal charge declines from 7% over a seven-year period for the Retirement Cornerstone Series B product. Actual results will vary. Rates of return will vary over time, particularly for long-term investments. Investments offering the potential for higher rates of return also involve a higher degree of risk.

Pension and annuity 18% Employment earnings 36% Income from assets Reliability of Guaranteed Income: Where Will My Money Come from? Pension and annuity 18% Employment earnings 36% Income from assets Other 32% Social security 3% 11% Source: SSA, March 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey.

Much more/ More than expe cted Majority of retirees receive the same Social Security payment that they expect, but more overestimate payment than underestimate About one quarter of Recent Retirees (24%) say their SS payment is less/much less than expected. 10+ Retirees are three times as likely to say their SS payments were less than expected (33%) rather than more than they expected (11%). Is your SS payment what you expected? Compared to 2015, older adults drawing SS in 2016 are more likely to say that their SS payment is less than/much less than expected (30% vs. 22%). 2% 9% 9% Much more/ More than expe cted 9% 11% 57% 67% Much more than I expected More than I expected The same as I expected Less/ Much less than expected 24% Less than I expected 27% 33% Much less than I expected 20% 4% 5% Recent Retirees 10+ Retirees Base: Currently Drawing Social Security (Total n=597): Recent (n=253); 10+ (n=297) Q724 Is your Social Security payment more, the same as or less than you expected?

Many Indicate Having Other Sources of Income During Retirement Although all groups say that SS will cover more than half of their expenses, Future Retirees are more likely than Recent or 10+ Retirees to supplement this with retirement accounts or employment, but are less likely to say they will supplement with pension. In 2016, fewer Future Retirees say they will have retirement accounts, compared to 2015 or 2014 (61% vs. 73% or 73%) Sources of Retirement Income Avg. % of Expenses Expect SS to Cover: Future Retirees: 57% Recent Retirees: 57% 10+ Retirees: 55% Future Retirees Recent Retirees 10+ Retirees 60% 61% 54% 48% 42% 41% 36% 34% 32% 33% 27% 22% 21% 23% 23% 21% 18% 14% 9% 8% 9% 3% 4% 1% Pension Retirement Savings Stocks Annuities or Employment Inheritance None of these accounts insurance Note: Only responses >3% among Total are reported  : Recent Retiree significantly higher/lower than 10+ Retiree @ 95% Green/Red= significantly higher/lower than Future Retirees @ 95% Base: Qualified Respondents (Total n=909); Future (n=301); Recent (n=301); 10+ (n=307) Q716 In addition to Social Security, [do you have/will you have] any of the following sources of retirement income? Please select all that apply. Q813 What percent of your expenses [do/do you expect] your Social Security benefits [to] cover?

59½ earliest get retirement $ without penalty Reliability of Guaranteed Income: Important Dates For Retirees 59½ earliest get retirement $ without penalty Social Security Dates (62, Full Retirement Age, or 70) Medicare 65 70½ RMDs

Reliability of Guaranteed Income: Withdrawaing from a Diversified Portfolio Investment Risk: Portfolio mix and income affect the life of your savings Probability Of Meeting Income Needs Over 25 Years Withdrawal Rate 100% Bonds 75% Bonds 25% Stocks 50% Bonds 50% Stocks 25% Bonds 75% Stocks 100% Stocks 4% 86% 97% 95% 92% 88% 5% 35% 71% 79% 76% 6% 28% 52% 60% 62% 7% 0% 27% 42% 48% 8% 11% 26% 36% 50% Bonds 50% Stocks A good asset mix may take you the distance! This table illustrates a variety of asset mixes along with several withdrawal rates. I want to use it to explain another risk that you face in retirement – namely, not allocating your assets properly, based on your risk tolerance, to provide the income you’ll need to sustain a comfortable retirement. Let’s assume, as the table shows, that a 60-year-old woman with a life expectancy of another 24 years can readily expect to live until nearly age 85. If she had invested solely in bonds, even at a 4% withdrawal rate, she has only an 86% chance that her assets will last the 25 years. By introducing a stock component into her asset mix and using a 4% withdrawal rate, the probability of her assets lasting reaches 97%. This chart assumes that a person establishes a portfolio at retirement and begins withdrawing a required income at the beginning of the first year, which is expressed as a percentage of the initial portfolio value. Annual withdrawal are made at the beginning of each subsequent year based on the first year withdrawal, adjusted for inflation. The results in this chart were generated using representative stock and bond indices in a Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo analysis is a problem solving technique used to approximate the probability of certain outcomes by running multiple trial runs, called simulations, using random variables. Please note that the results shown may vary with each use of the analysis and over time. Stocks in this example are represented by the Standard and Poors 500®, which is and unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Bonds are represented by the five-year U.S. government bond and inflation by the Consumer Price Index. Each monthly withdrawal is adjusted for inflation. Data is historical from 1926-2209. The table shows also shows how the rate of withdrawal can affect the chance of maintaining a positive portfolio balance over a 25-year retirement. A high probability indicates it is more likely that an investor will maintain a positive portfolio balance in retirement, while a low probability indicates that an investor is less likely to do so and may face shortfall. The chance of a portfolio running out over a long retirement is less likely as the amount withdrawn decreases and as equities are added. Less likely More likely

Couples with a Retirement Plan in place are: With plan Without plan The Need for Planning Planning for the future can go a long way toward achieving greater peace of mind and alignment as a couple Couples with a Retirement Plan in place are: With plan Without plan Twice as likely to expect to live a "very comfortable" retirement 42% 18% More likely to be "completely confident" in assuming full financial responsibility for retirement if needed 67% More likely to be "completely confident" in their partner's ability to assume full responsibility 63% 43% Less likely to have "no idea" when it comes to how much they need in retirement 28% 54% Read Slide, source info from the 2015 Fidelity Couples Retirement Study Source: Fidelity Couples Retirement Study 2015

Variable Annuities What is a Variable Annuity? Guaranteed stream of lifetime income Guaranteed payments to your beneficiaries upon death Variable Annuities Equity Exposure For those of you who are not familiar with annuities, they are long-term investment vehicles designed for retirement. In the most basic terms, a deferred variable annuity is a contract between a client and an insurance company to accumulate funds and then provide lifetime payments. Variable annuities – while offering deferral of current income taxes– provide other benefits that appeal to many investors. It is appealing as a retirement planning strategy because it can help clients: Potentially grow money faster through a variety of equity and fixed income investment options. These investments options are subject to market risk including the loss of principal. Manage annuity payments more efficiently in retirement. Provide death benefit protection to beneficiaries prior to annuitization. Access money in retirement through a variety of payout options. Of course, there are certain fees and charges associated with variable annuities, which include, but are not limited to: mortality and expense charges, sales charges, administrative fees, and withdrawal charges. A guaranteed stream of lifetime income can be provided by annuitizing account value that has been built up during the accumulation period. Guaranteed minimum payments are provided by a living benefit rider which is optional and available for an additional fee. AXA Equitable offers three variable annuities that your financial professional can speak further with you about. A deferred variable annuity is a long-term financial product designed for retirement purposes. In essence, an annuity is a contractual agreement in which payment(s) are made to an insurance company, which agrees to pay out an income or a lump sum amount at a later date. Typically, variable annuities have mortality and expense charges, account fees, investment management fees, administrative fees and charges for special contract features. In addition, annuity contracts have exclusions and limitations. Early withdrawals may be subject to contractual withdrawal charges, and, if take prior to age 59 ½, a 10% federal income tax penalty may apply. Variable annuities are subject to market risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. For costs and complete details of coverage, contact a financial professional. Defer taxes Schedule an appointment to speak with your Financial Professional about putting in place these strategies!

Important Information Variable annuities and mutual funds are sold by prospectus. Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives both carefully before investing. For prospectuses containing this and other information, please call your financial professional. Read it carefully before you invest or send money. AXA Equitable Life Insurance Company (NY, NY) is an issuer of variable annuities. Distributors: AXA Distributors, LLC and AXA Advisors, LLC (members FINRA, SIPC). AXA Equitable, AXA Advisors, and AXA Distributors are affiliated companies and do not provide tax or legal advice. Guarantees are based on the claims-paying ability of issuing insurance company. AXA Equitable, its distributors and their respective representatives do not provide tax, accounting or legal advice. Any tax statements contained herein were not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used for the purpose of avoiding U.S. federal, state or local tax penalties. Please consult your own independent advisor as to any tax, accounting or legal statements made herein. ©2016 AXA Equitable Life Insurance Company. All rights reserved.

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