Game 1 The P-beauty Contest

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Presentation transcript:

Game 1 The P-beauty Contest Game Theory Game 1 The P-beauty Contest

P-Beauty Contests

Levels of Rationality

Class Strategies

Levels of Rationality 2-3 Penn (Wharton) Students Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees US High School Students

Levels of Rationality 2-3 Penn (Wharton) Students Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees US High School Students UConn

Levels of Rationality 2-3 3 Penn (Wharton) Students Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees US High School Students UConn Cal-Tech undergrads

Results Average Number: 39.9 ¾ of Average: 29.9

Closest Alex (29) Tyler (31) Top ten between 25 and 39

Furthest One person picked 77

Furthest Adam picked 75 Connor picked 75

I’m Rational (But the Rest of You Aren’t) Picked 0 Xue Lizzie John

Predictability Winning number: 29.9

Predictability Winning number: 29.9 Winning number 2018: 29.8 Winning number 2016: 29.1 Winning number 2015: 29.5 Winning number 2014: 29.8 Winning number 2013: 30.0

Summary Common knowledge is bunk Bounded rationality is not Must understand how far the reasoning of other players will go People generally think two to three steps ahead (The rule of three) Need to stay one step ahead Don’t be too clever