Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017 Scope for the circular economy to affect GHG and employment embodied in trade Sam J G Coopera, Jonathan B Normana, Palash Kamruzzamanb, Geoff P Hammonda University of Bath, Bath UK University of South Wales, Pontypridd, UK sjgcooper@bath.edu EPRSC grant: EP/N022645/1

Background 1. The effects of circular economy approaches are felt outside the region adopting them: Cooper, S. J. G., Giesekam, J., Hammond, G. P., Norman, J. B., Owen, A., Rogers, J. G., & Scott, K. (2017). Thermodynamic insights and assessment of the “circular economy.” Journal of Cleaner Production. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.06.169 Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Background 2. Different regions have different relationships between impacts based on consumption or production 3. Exporting goods and services is responsible for emissions but also value creation Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

How might macro-scale effects vary? Modelling approximation: circular economy approaches replace the need for raw material inputs with alternatives. E.g. refurbishment, material efficiency, reuse, recycling etc. Supply chain effects assessment based on Multi-regional input-output analysis Linear, aggregated model Which regions might be affected? Which regions and sectors cause effects? Eora dataset, worldmrio.com Lenzen, M., Kanemoto, K., Moran, D., Geschke, A. Mapping the Structure of the World Economy (2012). Env. Sci. Tech. 46(15) pp 8374-8381. DOI:10.1021/es300171x Manfred Lenzen , Daniel Moran , Keiichiro Kanemoto & Arne Geschke (2013) Building Eora: A Global Multi-regional Input-Output Database at High Country and Sector Reso lution, Economic Systems Research, 25:1, 20-49, DOI:10.1080/09535314.2013.769938 Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Global impact per % of global transition Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Regional impact per % of global transition Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Regional impact per % regional transition Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Global impact per % regional transition Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Sectors – impact per % transition Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Sectors – impact per $ moved Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

Conclusions Effect of others adopting it may force adaptation. Disruption potentially highest for low-income regions, but also greatest scope for benefit Nations adopting CE approaches generally benefit. Even if sectoral profit ratios unaffected Generally, high-income regions see less employment churn for given level of change. Potential savings per $ vary but can be high. Further research – case studies considering actual challenges in transition. Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

All sectors and regions Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

All sectors and regions Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017

All sectors and regions Sustainable lifestyles, livelihoods and the circular economy 27th – 29th June 2017