We Have Not Crossed the Chasm AIDC 100 Strategic RFID Workshop RFID Journal LIVE! Orlando, FL 27 April 2009 by Sprague Ackley Intermec

Have we not crossed the chasm? What is a chasm and when is it crossed? RFID and the comparison to bar code The lessons from standards Finding the chasm The other side of the chasm

What is a chasm and when is it crossed? According to Webster’s: Chasm 1: a deep cleft in the surface of a planet (as the earth) : gorge 2: a marked division, separation, or difference

What is a chasm and when is it crossed? Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers by Geoffrey Moore - 1991 The most difficult step is making the transition between the early adopters and mainstream application

What is a chasm and when is it crossed? The chasm is crossed when a technology becomes “mainstream” A technology is “mainstream” when it is “everywhere”

RFID and the comparison to bar code RFID and bar code can track things Bar code had its most visible application start in April 1973 Bar code grew slowly then rapidly Bar code is everywhere Bar code has crossed the chasm

The lessons from standards: bar code After UPC in 1973, first industry standards in 1982 Early application standards for Military, Automotive and Healthcare in early 80’s First bar code quality standard 1990 Bar code was “everywhere” by 1995 to 2000

The lessons from standards: RFID First industry standards UHF in 2004 Early application standards for Military, Automotive and Retail mid 2000’s First RFID quality standard in process RFID will be “everywhere” by ????

Finding the chasm Growth of scanning supermarkets Growth of early bar code industry Growth of current RFID industry Growth of future RFID industry

Growth of scanning supermarkets Data from George Goldberg Memorial Digitization Project, Special Collections Department, Stony Brook University Library

Growth of scanning supermarkets

Growth of scanning supermarkets CHASM

Growth of early bar code market Data courtesy Paul Bergé International LLC. Y-axis in USD (billions).

Growth of bar code market

Growth of bar code market CHASM

Growth of current RFID industry Data courtesy VDC. Y-axis in USD (billions).

Growth of future RFID industry

Growth of future RFID industry CHASM

The other side of the chasm RFID has yet to reach the “mainstream” Like early bar code applications, current successful RFID applications tend to be “closed-loop” Standards will eventually stabilize and support rapid open-system growth RFID will cross the chasm

The other side of the chasm It is difficult to make predictions - particularly about the future. (Confucius, Winston Churchill, Groucho Marx, 'Yogi' Berra and several others: Nature 455, 729, 9 October 2008)

We Have Not Crossed the Chasm AIDC 100 Strategic RFID Workshop RFID Journal LIVE! Orlando, FL 27 April 2009 by Sprague Ackley Intermec