Technical Committee Meeting March 18, 2016

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Presentation transcript:

Technical Committee Meeting March 18, 2016 2021 Adequacy Assessment Reference Case and Scenarios Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee Technical Committee Meeting March 18, 2016

Reference Case (Based on 7th Plan Assumptions) Adjusted LTM loads with RPM expected EE and DR Import availability Spot (2500 MW all hours winter, 0 summer) Purchase Ahead (3000 MW off-peak hours, all year) IPP generation Full availability winter 1000 MW summer EE quarterly mean and peak from RPM Regional wind modeled as BPA wind Regional solar has fixed generation pattern

Suggested Scenarios Reference Studies (using LTM loads) Reference Case (med load, 2500 MW import) Load Ranges (low, med-low, med, med-high, high) Import Ranges (0, 1700, 2500, 3400,4500) Sensitivity Studies Reference Case using STM loads Fuel Limitation Remove Gray’s Harbor Remove it at low temperature threshold (code change) Use STM conservation shape (if different) No new DR case

Number of Studies Reference Case (LTM) 1 Load Ranges X Import Ranges 24 Reference Case (STM) 1 Fuel Limitation 2 No new DR 1 Conservation shapes 1 Total 30

Not Modeled for 2021 Import uncertainty Market friction Uncertainty in availability of the intertie Uncertainty in availability of CA resources Market friction Is adding uncertainty to the imports sufficient Should imports be a function of temperature Economic load uncertainty Instead of high and low load scenarios Built in as a random variable