Update on Cash Crops Coleman Research Group Presentation Aug. 20, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.9 Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.8 Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,686 Beg. Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,772 Imports 29 160 36 30 Total Supply 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,477 15,488 Feed & Residual 4,557 4,315 5,034 5,300 Ethanol 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,200 5,250 Food, Seed, & Other 1,428 1,397 1,369 1,355 1,375 Exports 1,543 730 1,917 1,850 Total Use 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,705 13,775 Ending Stocks 1,713 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.65 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 84.3 Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.9 Production (mil. bu.) 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,916 Beg. Stocks 215 169 141 92 240 Imports 16 41 72 30 Total Supply 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,091 4,186 Crush 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,845 1,860 Seed & Residual 88 105 97 181 132 Exports 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,825 1,725 Total Use 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,851 3,717 Ending Stocks 470 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.05 9.15 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 54.4 55.3 56.2 56.8 56.1 Yield (bu./acre) 43.7 46.2 47.1 44.1 Production (mil. bu.) 1,999 2,252 2,135 2,026 2,136 Beg. Stocks 862 743 718 590 753 Imports 112 123 169 144 125 Total Supply 2,974 3,118 3,021 2,760 3,014 Food 941 945 955 958 967 Seed 76 73 77 81 72 Feed & Residual 162 370 223 115 200 Exports 1,051 1,012 1,176 854 925 Total Use 2,231 2,400 2,431 2,008 2,164 Ending Stocks 850 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 7.24 7.77 6.87 5.99 5.10 Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

Early Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Early Soy Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Winter Wheat Yields Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Wheat Data Source: USDA-NASS

Small Grains Summary Sorghum Barley Oats 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 7.1 8.7 3.0 3.4 2.7 3.1 Yield (bu./acre) 67.6 74.6 72.4 71.8 67.7 70.0 Production (mil. bu.) 433 573 177 210 70 85 Beg. Stocks 34 17 82 79 25 54 Imports 24 20 107 95 Total Supply 467 589 283 308 202 234 Feed & Residual 105 38 60 69 Food, Seed, & Other 15 151 153 77 Exports 350 430 14 2 Total Use 450 550 204 228 148 174 Ending Stocks 39 80 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.00 3.90 5.30 4.60 3.21 2.35 Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 15 15

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Wheat Export Pace Source: USDA-FAS

Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 3.80 3.57 Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

Current Soybean Futures 8.60 8.49 Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

Current Wheat Futures 5.09 4.61 Source: CME Group, 8/18/2015

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Does rain make grain for corn and soybeans? Export weakness given the strength of the dollar Competitive balance in wheat export markets 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 Futures (8/18/15) 2016/17 Corn $3.70 $3.65 $3.57 $3.80 Soybeans $10.05 $9.15 $8.60 $8.49 Wheat $5.99 $5.10 $4.61 $5.09

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/