Heartland 5-12 Chicago HAVE INCREASES IN CO2 LEAD TO MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND SEVERE CLIMATE EVENTS? NO

ANNUAL GLOBAL BUDGET (Wm-2) Solar Net Alb 2 X CO2 OLR + Alb Net OLR 342 235 3.7 Wm-2 342 107 Top of Atmos. CO2 OLR BLOCKAGE (from 1850) Sen. Heat IR Rain Ab. Solar 2012 2100 64 59 27 85 235 Net IR Sen. heat Evap. 1.4 3.7 Sfc. Wm-2 59 27 85 3.7 Wm-2 171 DOUBLE Sfc. Solar Absorption ~ 50% ~ 50% ~ 1.9 Wm-2 ~ 1.8 Wm-2

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ SURFACE EQUILIBRIUM WITH DOUBLE CO2 (units Wm-2) Sfc. Sen. Heat Solar Rain IR ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 86.8 27.6 60.3 Sfc. 171 85 27 59 Wm-2 (2 x CO2) Addition for CO2 Doubling + ∆ 3.7 +1.8 + 0.6 + 1.3 Wm-2 More Evap-Precip ~ 2.1% Increase ∆ IR Higher Temp. ~ 0.3°C Increase

DOUBLING CO2 GCMs Projected Reality 3oC 2oC 1oC 0.5oC Direct CO2 Warming ∆ Vapor and Cloud Feedback Warming Net Global Warming Projected Reality 0.5oC 0.3oC Direct CO2 Warming w/Rainfall -0.2oC Net Global Warming ∆ Vapor and Cloud Negative Feedback

THE PHYSICAL FLAWS OF THE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY and Heartland 5-12 Chicago THE PHYSICAL FLAWS OF THE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY and DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION CHANGES AS THE PRIMARY CLIMATE DRIVER by William M. Gray Professor Emeritus

THE MAIN MISCONCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL WARMERS IS TO ASSUME THAT ALL THE MANY LARGE ENERGY TERMS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM REMAIN CONSTANT OVER LONG PERIODS AND THAT THE ONLY CHANGES THAT MATTER FOR CLIMATE ALTERATION ARE THE VERY SMALL MAGNITUDE VARIATIONS OF HUMAN-INDUCED CO2. HOW COULD THE WARMERS BE SO NAÏVE AS TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY CHANGES IN ∆CO2 ARE THE DOMINANT CLIMATE FORCING MECHANISM?

∆ RADIATION (NOT THE WHOLE STORY) CLIMATE FORCING ∆ RADIATION (NOT THE WHOLE STORY) THERE ARE IMPORTANT INTERNAL FORCINGS OFTEN NEGLECTED (VARIATION IN GLOBAL NET EVAPORATION-PRECIPITATION AND DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION CHANGES)

BULK FORMULA = ~ 0.29 cm/cm2d ≈ 85 Wm-2 EVAP. = ρ CE |V| (qs – q) ∆t cm2 d (1.1 X 10-3) (2 X 10-3) (5 m/s) (3 X 10-3g/kg) .864 X105 = ~ 0.29 cm/cm2d ≈ 85 Wm-2 Can vary up to  5 Wm-2 3.7 Wm-2 = 4.2% Evaporation Change

Reanalysis Data ISCCP Data GLOBAL DATA SETS 1950 Reanalysis Data 2009 IR Albedo 1984 2004 ISCCP Data

AREAS 70oN 1 2 3 4 5 6 30oN 30oN 1 2 3 4 5 6 30oS 30oS 1 2 3 4 5 6 70oS 0o 60oE 120oE 180o 120oW 60oW 0o Plus many individual locations

TROPICS (30oN-30oS; 0-360o) Monthly (High – Low) Precipitation Values

AS PRECIPITATION AND DEEP CONVECTION INCREASE IR+Alb IR REALITY Albedo AS PRECIPITATION AND DEEP CONVECTION INCREASE GCMs Albedo IR+Alb IR

TYPICAL RADIATION CHANGES WITH INCREASING GLOBAL PRECIPITATION IR+Alb

Heartland 5-12 Chicago THERE IS NO POSITIVE WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK WARMING FROM CO2 AND UPPER TEMPERATURE INCREASES

FAMOUS NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE (1979) STUDY (The Charney Report) Doubling CO2 will lead to global ∆T of 1.5-4.5°C (~3°C) Due to positive water vapor feedback ∆T → ∆ moisture → reduced OLR ∆CO2 RH const.

Changes for a doubling of CO2 HANSEN – early model Changes for a doubling of CO2 + 50% + 6% Pressure (hPa) Pressure (hPa) Δq ΔRH Change in specific humidity (%) Change in relative humidity (%)

Model Simulation of Feedback Influence of a Doubling of CO2 IPCC-IV 19 GCM 2007 Model Simulation of Feedback Influence of a Doubling of CO2 2oC Water Vapor Clouds Albedo Lapse Rate WV+LR All Feedbacks FEEDBACK TYPE

IPCC MODELS (IV) - Avg OBSERVATIONS FEEDBACK TYPE ISCCP & Reanalysis Heartland 5-12 Chicago IPCC MODELS (IV) - Avg 2007 OBSERVATIONS 2oC ISCCP & Reanalysis 1oC Water Vapor Clouds Albedo Lapse Rate WV+LR All Feedbacks FEEDBACK TYPE

DOUBLING CO2 GCMs Projected Reality 3oC 2oC 1oC 0.5oC Direct CO2 Warming ∆ Vapor and Cloud Feedback Warming Net Global Warming Projected Reality 0.5oC 0.3oC Direct CO2 Warming w/Rainfall -0.2oC Net Global Warming ∆ Vapor and Cloud Negative Feedback

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE? Heartland 5-12 Chicago WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE? IT’S THE OCEAN!!

Research Proposal for Investigation of: THE FATAL FLAWS OF GLOBAL WARMING THEORY and DEEP OCEAN CIRCULATION CHANGES AS THE PRIMARY CLIMATE DRIVER by the Research Team of: William M. Gray (PI) Barry Schwartz Amie Hedstrom BUDGET $90K/year For 2 years ($180K total) May 2012 Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

BARRY SCHWARTZ WILLIAM (BILL) GRAY AMIE HEDSTROM

RESEARCH WILL FURTHER EXPLORE THE SUBJECTS OF THIS TALK

THC (or AMO) STRONG THC (or AMO) WEAK

N. Atlantic SSTA 50-60oN; 10-50oW THC Fast Fast Slow Slow Global Warming Global Warming THC Fast Fast Slow Slow Global Cooling

MORE UPWELLING COOLING LESS UPWELLING COOLING Strong MOC MORE UPWELLING COOLING More Rain MOC Weak LESS UPWELLING COOLING Less Rain

Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT) 3 1 2 X X SAS SAS Courtesy of John Marshall (MIT)

Mixed Layer Thermocline Solar +25 MEAN ~~~~~~~~~~ MOC 10 -25 15 Mixed Layer Thermocline MOC = -25 Steady State ∆E = 0 SP NP Solar +25 THC STRONG ~~~~~~~~~~ 15 -35 20 Mixed Layer COOLING + More Rain more upwelling MOC = -35 ∆E = - 10 SP NP Solar +25 THC WEAK ~~~~~~~~~~ 5 - 15 10 Mixed Layer WARMING - Less Rain less upwelling MOC = -15 ∆E = + 10 SP NP

Global Oceans MOC THC SAS + = Meridional Overturning Circulation Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Surrounding Antarctic Subsidence

NOW extrapolated

Multi-century + decadal THC+ Multi-Decadal + Multi-Century THC+ THC+ ? TEMP TEMP Multi-century + decadal THC- mean THC- THC neg. ? Multi-Century 1880 1910 1940 1975 1998 2030

19TH Century 20TH Century Globe Cooler Globe Warmer Heartland 5-12 Chicago Globe Cooler Globe Warmer 19TH Century 20TH Century

Heartland 5-12 Chicago A Possible 20th-Century Slowdown of Southern Ocean Deep Water Formation (Wallace S. Broecker, 1 Stewart Sutherland, 1 Tsung-Hung Peng 2) Chlorofluorocarbon-11 inventories for the deep Southern Ocean appear to confirm physical oceanographic and geochemical studies in the Southern Ocean, which suggest that no more than 5 Sv of ventilated deep water is currently being produced... …A major reduction in Southern Ocean deep water production during the 20th century (from high rates during the Little Ice Age) is occurring. Science 5 November 1999: Vol. 286. no. 5442, pp. 1132 - 1135

SUMMARY ANYONE WHO HAS SEEN THE CARBON FOOTPRINT OF HUMAN-INDUCED GLOBAL WARMING MUST HAVE ALSO SEEN THE FOOTPRINT OF BIGFOOT