How binding is parenthood How binding is parenthood? The impact of the parents’union trajectory up to the birth of the first child on the separation risk in Flanders Martine Corijn1, Inge Pasteels2, Dimitri Mortelmans2, Koen Matthijs3 1 Research centre of the Flemish Government, Brussels 2 Research centre for longitudinal and life course studies (CELLO), University of Antwerp 3 Centre for sociological research, Catholic University of Leuven European Network for the Sociological and Demographic Studies of Divorce Eighth Meeting, València 14th -16th October, 2010

Non-married cohabitation in Flanders Late start: 4% of all unions in 1990 15% of all unions in 2007 Growing proportion of pre- versus postmarital cohabitation: 63% versus 37% in 1990 77% versus 23% in 2007 Strong non-religious profile Changing educational profile: from low to middle/higher

Parental status at (first) birth in Flanders Dramatic recent increase of non-marital births: 1980 - 1990 - 2000 - 2007 2.5% - 7% - 22% - 42% Late but rapid shift of parental status at first birth: premarital cohabitation: 2000 - 2007 19% - 40%

Non-married cohabiting parenthood in Flanders In 2007: 7% of all unions 46% of all cohabiting unions In 2007: Young children involved: 46% with youngest child < 3 years In 2008: 1 in 7 children live with non-married cohabiting parents

Pre-(never-married) and post-(divorced)marital cohabitation and parenthood in Flanders (age 18-50) 1990 2000 2007 Pre: no kid 44 41 Pre: kids 19 29 35 Post: no kid 15 11 8 Post: kids 23 18 % in union 10 25 27 In 2004 75% of partners had same civil status

Non-married cohabitation and union stability Liefbroer & Dourleijn (2006): impact depends on diffusion of popularity of non-married cohabitation in European countries CBS (2009): the Netherlands: change of impact of cohabitation over time Mortelmans et al. (2009): Belgium: change of impact of non-married cohabitation is cohort- and region-specific

Union trajectory and stability for the child Change of focus: from union stability to stability of life of the child Wu, Bumpass & Musick (2001) Manning et al. (2004) Wu & Musick (2008) Impact of cohabitation (C) - marriage (M) - first birth (B) on union stability: C - B : least stable C - M - B and C - B - M : in-between M - B : most stable

Research question Does the kind of union trajectory up to the first birth – parenthood trajectory – make a difference for the stability of the (first) child’s life in Flanders?

DiF-sample and data Sample of first marriages since 1971 with 1/3 intact marriages and 2/3 non-intact marriages Research population: ¼ intact marriages and ¾ non-intact marriages Shortcomings: no cohabiting parenthood that was never or not yet converted into a first marriage; proportionality across cohorts reduces number of recent first marriages

(Intermezzo 1: Premarital cohabitants) Shorter courtship period (51 vs 58 months) Short period (29 months) Majority has no legal arrangement 25% have child-related motives to marry More non-religious More middle & higher educated

(Intermezzo 2: Union trajectories up to first marriage across union cohorts)

(Intermezzo 3: From union to separation) Higher separation risk: across union cohorts when wife is < age 20 at start union after premarital cohabitation after premarital conception Lower separation risk: when wife is age 25-29 at start union with higher education No impact: current religiosity

(Intermezzo 4: From childless to first birth) Those that will separate have much lower chance to have a child (odds ratio 0.42) No other differentials  parenthood is binding

Parenthood trajectories across birth cohorts

Separation risk according to parenthood trajectory marriage – conception 1.00 conception – marriage 0.97 ns cohabit – conception – marriage 1.27 ** cohabit – birth – marriage 1.11 ns cohabit – marriage – birth 1.47 *** Impact of birth cohort and age mother No impact of current religiosity and educational level

Conclusions (1) Parenthood is binding Married parenthood after cohabitation is less binding Cohabiting parenthood followed by marriage or not: too recent to follow Life of 0-18 olds (born 1986-90) with separated parents: 0.30% with parents cohabiting 63% with parents married 37% with parents separated

Conclusions (2) Premarital cohabitation: short , no contract, child-related motives to marry Marriage remains closely linked to fertility (premarital conceptions) New developments to be monitored in years to come