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Volume 3, Issue 6, Pages 535-543 (June 2016) Prediction of violent reoffending on release from prison: derivation and external validation of a scalable tool Prof Seena Fazel, MD, Zheng Chang, PhD, Thomas Fanshawe, PhD, Prof Niklas Långström, PhD, Prof Paul Lichtenstein, PhD, Prof Henrik Larsson, PhD, Susan Mallett, PhD The Lancet Psychiatry Volume 3, Issue 6, Pages 535-543 (June 2016) DOI: 10.1016/S2215-0366(16)00103-6 Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Estimated probability of violent reoffending in released prisoners in Sweden The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, 535-543DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(16)00103-6) Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Model discrimination shown by receiver operating characteristics curves The arrow indicates the point corresponding to the risk threshold. Sens=sensitivity. Spec=specificity. PPV=positive predictive value. NPV=negative predictive value. AUC=area under curve. The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, 535-543DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(16)00103-6) Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Model calibration by levels of predicted risk Data are from the external validation. Error bars represent 95% CIs. Numbers are the number of individuals in each risk category. The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, 535-543DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(16)00103-6) Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Proportion of released prisoners who violently reoffend by risk group Data are from derivation and validation samples. The Lancet Psychiatry 2016 3, 535-543DOI: (10.1016/S2215-0366(16)00103-6) Copyright © 2016 Fazel et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY Terms and Conditions