JROTC and Regular Army Accessions 12 March 2019 BDE Chief & DAI Workshop

JROTC Impacts Location of JROTC Programs Percentage of Schools with JROTC Programs Regular Army (RA) Enlistments 21% No JROTC 89% JROTC 11% No JROTC 54% 13% Service Percentage Schools Army 5% 1.7K Air Force 3% ~900 Marines 1% ~250 Navy 2% ~600 Total 11% ~3.5K 9% 3% Legend Army JROTC School Air Force JROTC School Marines JROTC School Navy JROTC School JROTC program presence in a High School significantly increases RA enlistments 11% (3.5K) of High Schools have JROTC programs All Service JROTC schools account for 46% of RA enlistments among high school graduates Students at schools offering JROTC are twice as likely to enlist in the RA than students at schools without JROTC** Enlistment Rate Per 1,000 Seniors* 9.5 18.4 20.9 No JROTC Other Service JROTC Army JROTC *Officer accessions programs not included **Findings reviewed by analysts from USAREC and HRC Students at Schools Offering JROTC are over 2x as Likely to Enlist

Revision of the “Question” OLD QUESTION: What “lift” do we get from participation in JROTC? Extremely difficult to answer this quantitatively – JROTC does not have an individual participant database Quantitatively estimated using AdvRank Rsn Code for JROTC participation ‘1’: Completed 1 or 2 years as a member of JROTC ‘2’: Completed 3 or more years as a member of JROTC ‘N’: Completed 2 or more years as a member of JROTC This excluded those with not “enough” JROTC participation for AdvRank AND those with “better” reasons for AdvRank (ie College hours) Some older studies (2005 and earlier) used NCES High School and Beyond datasets to determine participation in JROTC NEW QUESTION: What “lift” do we get from schools that have JROTC? This is a broader question that does not rely on knowledge of individual participation in JROTC Acknowledges that the existence of a JROTC program at the high school influences the rest of the student body that does not participate in the program

JROTC Army Enlistment ROI Methodology Accessions Datawarehouse (DWH) Schools Reference Table Containing All 3 Code Sets Single File for Schools containing: HS Senior Enrollments, US Army Enlistments, and JROTC Identifier Education History DWH School Code FY16-18 Grad Enlistments Schools Nat’l Center for Education Statistics (NCES) NCESSchool Code 2016 Directory/Enrollments (Public & Private) Aggregate Enrollments and Enlistments by JROTC Type 𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒= ( 𝐸𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 3 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 ) 𝐸𝑛𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 ∗1000 Service Data Provided to USACC Army Navy Air Force Marine Corps JROTC School Code Sep ‘18 All-Service JROTC Program Locations (Annual Enlistments per 1000 Seniors)

USAREC/HRC Peer Analyst Review Conducted 16 Jan 2019 Reviewed and approved Methodology Discussion of Accessions vs Contracts; USAREC expressed desire to continue to use contract data, group concurred Discussion and adjustment to inclusion criteria Initial analysis required a high school graduation date in the file; led to large data loss (~32k records, ~16%) from the analysis up front Revised criteria to last High School attended Now ~13k RA enlistments are not included (~7%) Most not included have education higher than HS; include college attended rather than HS

Adjusted Summary Output (Inclusion based on last HS Attended) Number of Schools JROTC SVC HS SRS Total Enlistments Total Army PenRate RA Enlistments RA PenRate USAR Enlistments USAR PenRate ARNG Enlistments ARNG PenRate 1703 Army 473,961 58,402 41.1 37,280 26.2 6,280 4.4 14,842 10.4 892 Air Force 323,270 33,607 34.7 22,196 22.9 3,426 3.5 7,985 8.2 266 Marines 92,151 8,977 32.5 5,898 21.3 3.2 2,187 7.9 612 Navy 216,821 22,437 34.5 15,289 23.5 2,245 4,093 7.5 30810 No JROTC 2,681,729 172,303 21.4 97,706 12.1 18,085 2.2 56,512 7.0 Ratio of Army JROTC to No JROTC = 26.2/12.1 =2.17 Still “Twice As Likely” 10.1% of Schools have JROTC 45.2% of RA Enlistments come from schools with JROTC If we add in the 6,600 contracts not matched to NCES school to the “no JROTC” category, the % drops to 43.6%

Yeah, but…. Analysis still includes Private Schools …. And we know JROTC programs are more likely to be at public schools DoDEA Schools …. And we know that military kids go to those so they’re more pre-disposed to military service Alternative Schools/Juvenile Detention Centers, etc….And we know those kids are less likely to qualify for military service Small schools that wouldn’t qualify for JROTC programs …. So you’re padding the populations at non-JROTC schools to get lower penetration rates Career Centers …. So you’re counting JROTC contracts at schools that report 0 Seniors to pad the JROTC school contracts for higher penetration rates at JROTC schools

Adjusted Summary Output (Inclusion based on last HS Attended, Public Schools >20 Srs only) Number of Schools JROTC SVC HS SRS Total Enlistments Total Army PenRate RA Enlistments RA PenRate Ratio of JROTC to No JROTC 1631 Army 474,143 56,946 40.0 36,351 25.6 1.95 869 Air Force 322,868 33,366 34.4 22,044 22.8 1.74 252 Marines 92,106 8,705 31.5 5,741 20.8 1.58 597 Navy 22,247 34.2 15,149 23.3 1.78 15752 No JROTC 2,392,573 165,288 23.0 94,121 13.1 1.0 17.5% of Public Schools have JROTC 31.6% of HS Srs have access to JROTC 45.7% of RA Enlistments come from schools with JROTC The “Twice As Likely” insight holds true in the most restricted analysis 8.5% of Public Schools have Army JROTC 13.6% of HS Srs have access to Army JROTC 21.0% of RA Enlistments come from schools with JROTC

Next Steps Examine effects of attributes in addition to JROTC program: Distance to military installation Socio-economics (% on free/reduced lunch as proxy) Diversity of school population (% Minority) Distance to recruiting station Veteran population estimate for the school district Urbanicity (using Census Bureau “urban locale” code for the school) Include impact on ROTC Nat’l Scholarship Applications

Regular Army Contracts from Urban Locations

Impact in Urban Areas Urban Locale JROTC Svc HS Seniors Total Enlistments RA Enlistments Net RA Pen Rate RA Pen Rate (per 1000) Penetration Ratio Army JROTC/No JROTC City Army 192,360 20,734 12,996 14.85 22.52 2.21 Other Svc 201,241 20,010 13,404 22.20 No JROTC 634,172 32,415 19,402 10.20 Suburb 152,635 17,605 11,790 15.17 25.75 2.24 298,451 29,028 19,594 21.88 983,221 57,947 33,909 11.50 Town 44,359 6,849 4,226 20.11 31.76 1.83 48,993 5,970 3,834 26.09 No JROTC  291,707 28,272 15,173 17.34 Rural 84,789 11,758 7,347 20.00 28.88 1.70 83,197 9,310 6,102 24.45 483,473 46,654 25,637 17.68 Next step: Regional / Focus Market level analysis

Discussion