Entry, exit and sustainability - some Swedish experiences on public governance and fiscal policy by Urban Hansson-Brusewitz Budget Director, Budget Department.

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Presentation transcript:

Entry, exit and sustainability - some Swedish experiences on public governance and fiscal policy by Urban Hansson-Brusewitz Budget Director, Budget Department Ministry of Finance 2009-09-25

GDP growth and forecast Sources: Eurostat, US Dep. of Commerce, Statistics Sweden and Ministry of Finance.

GDP in Sweden Percentage change per year, 1920–2012 Note: Time series before and after 1950 are not completely comparable. The quality of data from earlier years is more uncertain. Sources: Edvinsson (1920-1949) and Statistics Sweden (1950-2008); forecast from Ministry of Finance (2009-2012)

The 2010 budget for Sweden Measures to combat crisis Reduce effects of unemployment shock; Prevent unemployment from becoming lasting; Focus on core welfare services.

Very expansionary fiscal policy 2009-10 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 2009, June Percent of GDP Automatic stabilisers Discretionary fiscal policy

GDP in Sweden Percentage change per year, 1920–2012 Note: Time series before and after 1950 are not completely comparable. The quality of data from earlier years is more uncertain. Sources: Edvinsson (1920-1949) and Statistics Sweden (1950-2008); forecast from Ministry of Finance (2009-2012)

Government revenues in Sweden - forecast revisions since Spring Bill 2008, billions kronor

Lessons from the Swedish crisis in 1990’s Consolidation program min 90’s aimed at balancing austerity vs. growth prospects; yield credible short term budget gains; Cuts in transfer payments, less in core services. Reform needs to target expenditure cuts;

Hours worked, Sweden Index 1990=100

Public debt in Sweden compared to EU - Gross Public Debt. Source: OECD. Percent of GDP

Sustainable public finances in Sweden Indikatorn The S2 indicator shows the permanent improvement in surplus needed for sustainable public finances. A negative number imples that the public finances are sustainable and can withstand some weakening.Source: European Commission 2009. Percent of GDP

Summary Keep your own house in order; Stronger fiscal rules on national level to support Stability and Growth Pact; Expenditure ceilings are useful tools; Fiscal rules cannot survive without political support; EU public finances substantial challenges ahead – costs from ageing population; Enter by all means, but also think exit.