Bad weather in Potsdam in the mid of the 21th century?

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Presentation transcript:

Bad weather in Potsdam in the mid of the 21th century? Matze/Carsten March 2015

Climate Change projections for Potsdam Project: “Concept for Adaptation to Climate Change in the State Capital of Potsdam” City applies, BMU pays, we do it together with RD4 (Fritz) and 2 Potsdam based engineering offices (LUP, RegioFutur) Suggestions for adaptation measures Urban climate change impacts Climate Change projections for Potsdam

Projections: Statistical (i.p. resampling), e.g. STARS Dynamic (physical mechanisms), e.g. CORDEX contributers

Wechsung&Wechsung(2015); Int. J. Climatol. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4220

Wechsung&Wechsung(2015); Int. J. Climatol. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4220

Wechsung&Wechsung(2015); Int. J. Climatol. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4220

CORDEX Europe

Analysis of CORDEX results. Example: annual mean of daily max. temperature 12 GCM/RCM combinations

Annual precipitation Observed annual precipitation Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to 1970-2000] for 2045 (blue) and 2085 (red). Dashed lines: single model results for 2045 Dotted lines: single model results for 2085

Total runoff per year Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to 1970-2000] for 2045 (blue) and 2085 (red). Dashed lines: single model results for 2045 Dotted lines: single model results for 2085

Total runoff per year Model name Y0 historical (1979-2013) change in % Projected change (2031-2060) in % Projected change (2071-2100) in % ERA-INTERIM 75 17 -- "CNRM-CCLM" 119 11 14 25 "CNRM-RCA4" 102 9 46 86 "ICHEC-CCLM" 107 -48 -2 "ICHEC-HIRHAM" 276 95 3 "ICHEC-RACMO" 122 41 10 8 "ICHEC-RCA4" 2 27 1 "MPI-CCLM" 167 62 15 "MPI-RCA4" 176 -5 "HadGEM-RCA4" 82 -8 76 „IPSL-RCA4“ 166 21 24 49 3.-8. Model mean (2/3) 9 – 25 1 – 49 Multi model mean 28 Subset multi model mean (hist. right sign) 18 30

Heavy rain days (Prc > 16mm) per year Observed heavy rain days Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to 1970-2000] for 2045 (blue) and 2085 (red). Dashed lines: single model results for 2045 Dotted lines: single model results for 2085 advective + convective rain: convective rain:

Hot days (Tmax > 30°C) per year Observed hot days Relative frequency for projected change [% comp. to 1970-2000] for 2045 (blue) and 2085 (red). Dashed lines: single model results for 2045 Dotted lines: single model results for 2085