Sajjad Raza, MD, Joseph F. Sabik, MD, Stephen G. Ellis, MD, Penny L

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Presentation transcript:

Survival Prediction Models for Coronary Intervention: Strategic Decision Support Sajjad Raza, MD, Joseph F. Sabik, MD, Stephen G. Ellis, MD, Penny L. Houghtaling, MS, Kerry C. Rodgers, MD, Aleck Stockins, MD, Bruce W. Lytle, MD, Eugene H. Blackstone, MD The Annals of Thoracic Surgery Volume 97, Issue 2, Pages 522-528 (February 2014) DOI: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2013.06.099 Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 1 Unadjusted mortality after coronary intervention. (A) Survival according to type of intervention. Dashed lines represent 68% confidence bands equivalent to ± 1 SE. Numbers of patients remaining at risk are below horizontal axis. (B) Instantaneous risk of death. Depiction is as for (A). Note that all interventions are associated with an early rapidly declining phase of risk, a period of constant risk, and a rising phase of risk. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 97, 522-528DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2013.06.099) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 2 Death among propensity-matched patients after coronary intervention. Format is as for Figure 1A. (A) CABG versus DES patients to 5 years. (B) CABG versus BMS patients to 10 years. (BMS = bare-metal stent; CABG = coronary artery bypass graft surgery; DES = drug-eluting stent.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 97, 522-528DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2013.06.099) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 3 Distribution of predicted values for 5-year survival calculated by solving three multivariable equations for each patient receiving coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stent (DES), or PCI with bare-metal stent (BMS). The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 97, 522-528DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2013.06.099) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

Fig 4 Screen shot of strategic decision-support tool. Values for variables are recorded on the left, and survival curves are obtained on the right. (CABG = coronary artery bypass graft surgery; EF = ejection fraction; Hx = history; LMT = left main trunk stenosis; MR = mitral regurgitation; y.o. = years old.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2014 97, 522-528DOI: (10.1016/j.athoracsur.2013.06.099) Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions