Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Crop Market Outlook ProAg Meeting Series Mt. Pleasant, IA Dec. 8, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.5 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 175.3 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 15,226 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,738 Imports 160 36 32 67 50 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,400 17,013 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,280 5,130 5,650 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,300 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,401 1,429 1,435 Exports 730 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,662 14,610 Ending Stocks 2,403 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.7 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,361 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 197 Imports 41 72 33 24 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,588 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,930 Seed & Residual 105 107 146 121 127 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,943 4,108 Ending Stocks 480 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.20 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 8 8

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Change in Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Current Corn Futures 3.68 3.36 Source: CME Group, 12/6/2016

Current Soybean Futures 9.87 9.76 Source: CME Group, 12/6/2016

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

2017/18 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/