European Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 Volker Schippers GTE+ Senior Adviser GTE+ Workshop on GTE+ Work Programme 24 June 2008

European Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 European level analysis of the transportation capacities and consumption forecasts in peak conditions and identification of possible EU internal bottlenecks to fulfil demand under these conditions Contents Daily consumption forecast in peak winter conditions for the next winter under normal and exceptionally cold conditions Transmission capacities of infrastructures at main European import points, LNG terminals and aggregated entries from national production Aggregated entry capacities from storages

Background First European Winter Outlook was developed by GTE for the winter 2007/2008 after discussing this idea on Madrid XI Highly welcomed in the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group on 25 October 2007; additional analyses requested Results of these analyses presented by GTE on the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group on 8 January 2008 GTE+ plans to develop Winter Outlooks for the winters 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 Recognise usefulness of this work for the European Gas Market Draft Third Energy Package of the Commission foresees the development of annual Winter Outlooks by ENTSOG

Assumptions Based on the respective national information provided by GTE+ members Expected that a fair representation of the European situation can be developed although it must be taken into account that the data collected this way cannot necessarily be seen as complete Develop and apply specific assumptions to take into account the depletion of production fields and the decrease of the withdrawal performance of gas storages during the winter

Timeline 2008 2009 Winter Outlook 2008/2009 Winter Outlook 2009/2010 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Winter Outlook 2008/2009 Data Collection and Analysis Presentation and Discussion Final Version Winter Outlook 2009/2010 Data Collection and Analysis Presentation and Discussion Final Version

Development Phases for the Winter Outlooks 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 Data Collection and Analysis (July and August) Collection of the data via the GTE+ Members Evaluation of the data received Production of a draft Winter Outlook Presentation and Discussion (September and October) Presentation of the draft to European Stakeholders (MF, GCG or another appropriate event involving a large number of European stakeholders) Feedback received will be used to refine the work Publication of Final Version (October)

Discussion