Political Analysis for Professionals of Business Associates Author: Professor Forrest Colburn

Tools described in this presentation are given as a sample that could be adapted and tailored according to the aims of the Employers’ and Business Organizations. POLITICAL MAPS

Tools described in the presentation Political Map List of Actors and Inventory of Their Resources Analysis of Political Forces Process Map of Politics Micro Matrix for Political Decisions Decision Tree

Guide for Decision-Making in Politics What do I want? What do we want? What are our objectives? What resources do we have that we can use to get what we want? Which resources are necessary but ones we do not have? Who has the resources that we need, and thus could possibly help us? 5. With whom do we thus need to collaborate? 6. What are these actors’ objectives? What are their interests? 7. How can we build an alliance, a coalition, with these actors? 8. Given the sum of resources we can muster, what are all of our possible strategies? 9. Which of these strategies can be successfully implemented? 10. What are all of the possible “counter-strategies” of our adversaries? 11. What are the probabilities of each of these “counter-strategies” being implemented? 12. Thus, which is our best strategy? What are the details of the implmentation of our strategy? What is our “time-line” and strategy for monitoring success?

Participants in National Politics: Actors Government ministries and bureaucracies (disaggregated) Individuals with status and charisma Business organizations Unions Political parties The police and armed forces (disaggregated) Religious institutions International organizations Governments of other countries The media Social organizations

POLITICAL MAPS To have a clear picture of all of the relevant actors in a policy—and their relationship to one another—it is helpful to prepare a political map. This analytical instrument is widely used in government and business, and every professional from these areas should know both how to prepare political maps and how to interpret them. There are no hard fast rules for how to prepare political maps. The only strict requirement is to be true to reality.

Preparing Political Maps The exercise begins with placing in the center the government. The executive and his or her political party is placed in the center. On either side are placed other actors, placed in proximity to the government based on their level of support—or opposition—to the government. Once all actors are placed in the matrix, circles (or squares) can be drawn to show alliances among actors.

Analyzing Political Maps Once a political map is completed the task of analysis begins. What does the configuration of political actors, each with a unique set of resources, say about the political environment? Key questions include: What is the capacity of the government? What is the capacity of the opposition? What are the necessary tasks of the government to maintain its authority? Interested actors use the answers to these questions to help them prepare their strategies for pursuing their own interests.

Political Map EXTERNAL SECTOR Anti- System Legal Opposition Support Government PRESSURE GROUPS POLITICAL PARTIES SOCIAL SECTORS

Political Map Opposition Sectors Support Sectors Anti- System Legal Government

List of Actors and Inventory of Their Resources List of Actors and Inventory of their Resources is Analytical Instrument that can help managers map out the consequences of each strategy being considered; Helps to focus on the actors involved in a dispute and to identify just who they are, what resources they command, and which, if any, allies they have.

List of Actors and Inventory of their Resources Formal Responsibilities Activities Resources Objective Degree of Influence Allies likely to assist

Analysis of Political Forces Analysis of Political Forces, is simple, but still potentially useful. It could help ensure that no powerful political actor likely to be interested in a conflict is left out of the discussion.

Analysis of Political Forces Actors in Favor Actors Opposed

Process Map of Politics Process Map of Politics draws attention to the importance of time, always a consideration in decision-making. Many political acts, have a number of steps. For example, a proposal to raise taxes might begin with a committee of congress, pass to a debate in congress (where all representatives can speak and ultimately vote on a proposal), and end up on the desk of the head of state, to sign or veto. Interested parties should consider carefully each step, the actors involved and their corresponding resources. In the event of a bid to intervene, to influence in one way or another, it is important to know when—as well as how—to employ one’s political resources. Resources are always limited and need to be employed carefully, always for the maximum pay-off.

Process Map of Politics Process Map of Politics and all other analytical instruments, should always be tailored to the reality at hand. It could be, for example, that a policy being considered has not three steps but five steps. What is important is not the model itself, but the systematic, orderly thinking that it encourages.

Process Map of Politics Step A: Step B: Step C: Actors Involved Actors Involved Actors Involved

Micro Matrix for Political Decisions Micro Matrix for Political Decisions is a matrix for considering the strategies of one actor and the counter strategies of an opposing actor. Use of the matrix encourages a careful review of each possible strategy, with an emphasis on understanding the likely response of an opponent. This matrix is similar to what is often used in business. For example, a firm may be considering raising (or lowering) prices, but if, as is usually the case, it has a competitor, it needs to consider the likely response of the competition. It can be risky in both business and politics to make decisions without a careful consideration of the likely response of other interested parties. A good professional is always looking forward, trying to anticipate alternate scenarios.

Micro Matrix for Political Decisions Two Actors Strategies and Counter Strategies Actor B: Counter Strategies Repression Do Nothing Offer Concessions Actor A: Strategies Direct Confrontation Simbolic Confrontation Negotiate Discreetly Simbolic Collaboration Direct Collaboration

Decision Tree While Micro Matrix for Political Decisions is useful when there are alternate strategies being considered, The Decision Tree is more useful when there is a single strategy being considered but one that might unleash a rapid chain of responses, decisions, responses, and still more decisions.

Decision Tree