Deterrence Below The Weapons Threshold Cristina Varriale

‘Traditional’ Nuclear Deterrence

The Concept of Nuclear Hedging 3

Hedging Deterrence Hedging deterrence as the ‘threat to cross the weapons threshold and acquire nuclear weapons’. Technical means Political resolve Cost of acquisition to an adversary 4

Technical Means Iran Civil nuclear infrastructure Hedging Overt nuclear weapons stockpile and posture Iran Deterrence 5

Political Resolve Frequently stated it does not have an interest in pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, BUT: Lapses commitment to IAEA safeguards agreements Breach 2003 nuclear agreement in 2004 January 2006 Iran resumed centrifuge R & D at the Natanz site 6

Cost of acquisition to an adversary Cost of retaliation must be high enough to alter the adversary calculations. Threat of use in tradition nuclear deterrence Is the threat of acquisition high enough? 7

Conclusion Technical means + Political will + cost of acquisition = deterrence? Two track mitigation - maintaining strengthen of non-proliferation norm - ensuring technical proliferation resistance